石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据Gulftimes2月25日报道，国际能源论坛(IEF)秘书长孙贤胜博士强调天然气在实现可持续和包容性增长方面的关键作用，但他表示，印度和中国将在2040年前推动天然气市场的发展。 他说，这两个亚洲国家将成为未来20年的主要消费国，非洲和中东紧随其后。周四，他在这里发表了2019年天然气出口国论坛(GECF)月度讲座系列的第二版。 到2040年，印度对天然气的需求预计将增长4.9%，而中国的需求将增长4.7%。 他说，从现在到2040年，非洲的需求预计将增长3.3%，而中东的需求将增长2%。 孙贤胜表示，到2040年，全球最大经济体美国的需求将增长0.7%。 在产量方面，IEF秘书长指出，到2040年，非洲将以3.7%的速度增长。他说，在此期间，莫桑比克将以12.2%的速度推动非洲的产量。 到2040年，中东地区的天然气产量将以2.2%的速度增长，卡塔尔和伊朗将主导天然气生产。 在亚太地区(2%)，澳大利亚和中国将分别以3%和3.9%的比例成为主要生产国。 在讲话中，孙贤胜强调了天然气在实现可持续和包容性增长方面的关键作用。 他说，包括欧佩克和国际能源机构在内的所有主要预测机构都证明了这一点。 “事实上，到2040年，天然气在全球能源结构中的份额将不低于25%。”他指出。 这一数字也与GECF的《2040年全球天然气展望》中预测的数字相符。 “天然气将继续获得动力，因为它可以成为巴黎协议目标的解决方案。” 孙贤胜表示。 在谈到生产商时，他说，预计市场上将出现几个新的新兴生产商，但卡塔尔在预测期间将继续保持稳定的生产商地位。 在消费者方面，IEF秘书长提到将转向亚洲，中国和印度的增长速度最快。 孙贤胜还呼吁在政策和投资决策方面进行合作，并呼吁建立基础设施和定价机制。为了最终实现能源安全供应，他强调“国际和地区能源合作是解决方案”。 在这里，他赞扬了GECF的作用，并呼吁该组织为对话作出“宝贵贡献”。 为加强这一对话，GECF将于下周参加“第九届IEA-IEF-OPEC能源展望研讨会”，GECF将是第四个合作伙伴。 孔丽炜 摘译自Gulftimes 原文如下： India, China to drive natural gas market until 2040: IEF secretary general India and China will drive the natural gas market until 2040, International Energy Forum (IEF) secretary general Dr Sun Xiansheng said even as he underlined natural gas’s “critical role in achieving sustainable and inclusive growth”. The two Asian countries will be the major consumers over the next two decades followed by Africa and the Middle East, he said while delivering the second edition of the 2019 series of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum’s (GECF) monthly lecture here on Thursday. Indian demand for gas is estimated to grow at 4.9% through 2040 while that of China at 4.7%, Xiansheng said while delivering the lecture entitled “Global Energy Security: The Role of Gas in Sustainable and Inclusive Growth” at the GECF’s headquarters in Doha. Africa’s demand will grow at an estimated 3.3% between now and 2040, while the Middle East at 2% during the period, he said. Demand in the US, the world’s largest economy, will grow at 0.7% through 2040, Xiansheng said. In terms of production, the IEF secretary general noted that Africa will grow at an estimated 3.7% until 2040. Mozambique will drive the African production at 12.2% during the period, he said. The Middle East will follow with a growth rate of 2.2% with Qatar and Iran leading gas production until 2040. In Asia–Pacific (2%), Australia and China will be major producers at 3% and 3.9% respectively. In his speech, Xiansheng underlined the critical role of natural gas in achieving sustainable and inclusive growth. This is a fact, he said, that has been proven by all major forecasting agencies, including Opec and the International Energy Agency. “In fact, the share of gas in the global energy mix will be no less than 25% by 2040,” he noted. The figure also corresponds with the figures projected in the GECF’s own Global Gas Outlook 2040. “Gas will continue to get momentum as it can be a solution to the Paris Agreement Goals,” Xiansheng stated. Looking at producers, he said several new emerging producers are expected in the market, but Qatar will continue to be a steady producer through the forecasted period. In terms of the consumers, the IEF secretary general mentioned there would be a shift to Asia, with China and India having the fastest growth rate. Xiansheng also called for collaboration in terms of policy and investment decisions and a necessity to develop infrastructure and pricing mechanisms. In order to ultimately reach energy security supply, he stressed that “international and regional energy cooperation is the solution”. This is where he praised the role of the GECF and called for the organisation’s “valued contributions” to the dialogue. In order to enhance this dialogue, the GECF will participate in the ‘9th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on energy outlook’ next week, of which the GECF will be the fourth partner.
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