石油圈 中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价网1月25日消息 荷兰皇家壳牌预计将于1月31日公布自2014年以来的最高年度利润，尽管去年年底油价暴跌可能会影响第四季度的盈利。 据新闻协会报道，壳牌预计将于周四进行公布，根据目前的供应成本（CCS）计算，该公司的年利润将增长39%，CCS是分析师密切关注的最接近净利润的指标，将达到219亿美元。 如果壳牌达到预期，那么它将录得自2014年油价开始暴跌以来的最高年利润。不过，分析师表示，由于去年10月至12月石油大规模抛售，第四季度的盈利可能会低于预期，也可能低于第三季度的盈利。 根据超过20位分析师的分析估计，2018年全年CCS盈利的共识是209.80亿美元，最高为219.89亿美元，最低为203.25亿美元。 第四季度的盈利估计为46.35亿美元至62.73亿美元之间，市场共识为52.80亿美元。 正如人们普遍预期的那样，油价上涨推动了壳牌第三季度的盈利和现金流，这也突出了强劲的现金流生成和持续的股票回购。 尽管略低于预期，但在油价上涨的背景下，壳牌第三季度的盈利仍是四年来的最高水平。 壳牌将发现很难与强劲的第三季度相匹敌，因为这一季度调整后的现金流达到了10年来的最高水平。交易提供商IG表示：“预计第四季度也将非常强劲，但考虑到最近的波动和油价的下跌，情况可能不会像预期那样好。” 王磊 摘译自 今日油价 原文如下：
Shell Set To Book Highest Profit Since 2014 Royal Dutch Shell is expected to report on January 31 its highest annual profit since 2014, although the oil price plunge late last year may hit Q4 earnings. Shell is forecast to report next Thursday a 39-percent yearly jump in earnings on a current cost of supplies (CCS) basis—its closest metric to a net profit closely watched by analysts—to US$21.9 billion, Press Association reports. If Shell meets those estimates, it would book its highest annual profit since oil prices started crashing in 2014. Yet, fourth-quarter earnings may fall below expectations and below the Q3 profit, due to the massive sell-offs in oil between October and December last year, analysts say. According to analyst estimates of more than 20 analysts, the consensus for full-year 2018 CCS earnings is US$20.980 billion, with a high of US$21.989 billion and a low of US$20.325 billion. Fourth-quarter earnings estimates range from US$4.635 billion to US$6.273 billion, with the consensus at US$5.280 billion. As widely expected, higher oil prices boosted earnings and cash flows at Shell in the third quarter, which highlighted strong cash flow generation and continued share buybacks. Despite slightly missing estimates, Shell’s earnings in Q3 were the highest in four years on the back of rising oil prices. “Shell will find it tough to match the third quarter’s (Q3) storming quarter, which saw its highest adjusted cash flow in over ten years. The Q4 is currently expected to be very strong as well, but given recent volatility and the rout in the oil price, things may not turn out as well as hoped,” trading provider IG said.
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