石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社1月21日消息，由于欧佩克+联盟产出消息好坏参半，投资者评估美国页岩产量增长放缓的迹象，油价维持在两个月高点附近。 纽约期货在周五飙升3.3％后几乎没有变化。根据贝克休斯的数据，美国正在运营的石油钻井平台数量降至5月份以来的最低水平。与此同时，国际能源机构的数据显示，承诺限制产量的非欧佩克国家在去年12月放弃了这一努力。当月，欧佩克的产量出现近两年来的最大降幅。 由于担心全球供应过剩和消费疲软，石油价格在上个季度暴跌近40%，目前正处于2001年以来的最佳开局。总部位于巴黎的IEA 预计，尽管全球经济出现放缓迹象，但今年的需求相对强劲。与此同时，欧佩克及其包括俄罗斯在内的合作伙伴已开始削减产量以平衡市场，此时美国产量石油预计将继续增长。 日本乐天证券驻东京大宗商品分析师Satoru Yoshida表示：“油价在上周飙升至54美元后出现了短暂的停顿，其中美国钻井平台数据推动了油价上涨。虽然美国产量正在上升且预计这种趋势将持续下去，但投资者正从欧佩克的减产中获得一种安全感。” 纽约商品交易所2月份西德克萨斯中质原油价格在东京时间下午5点21分下跌7美分，收于每桶53.73美元。该合约周五上涨1.73美元至53.80美元，收于11月21日以来的最高水平，周涨幅为4.3％。 伦敦ICE欧洲期货交易所3月交割的布伦特原油期货价格下跌22美分至每桶62.48美元。该合约周五上涨1.52美元至62.70美元。同期，全球基准原油价格较WTI溢价8.55美元。 尽管美国钻井平台数量下降了21台至852台，这是自2016年5月以来的最大跌幅，但但美国能源情报署上周公布的数据显示，美国钻井平台日产量为1190万桶。根据IEA的数据，美国今年的日产量将增加110万桶，并可能在未来六个月内超过沙特阿拉伯的最高水平。 与此同时，欧佩克+联盟是否会削减足够的产量以应对美国产量的激增并消除供应过剩仍有待观察。根据彭博的IEA初步数据计算，在本月开始的最新一轮减产之前，非欧佩克国家12月的履约率是自2017年开始减产以来的最低水平。 与此形成鲜明对比的是，欧佩克上周的报告显示，该组织上月将日产量削减了75.1万桶，为自上一轮减产开始以来的最大降幅。欧佩克最大的成员沙特阿拉伯占减产量的一半以上。 曹海斌 摘译自 彭博社 原文如下： Oil Holds Gains Near Two-Month High on Signs of Shale Slowdown Oil held gains near a two-month high as investors assess signs of slowing growth in U.S. production against mixed signals on output from the OPEC+ coalition. Futures in New York were little changed after surging 3.3 percent on Friday. The number of working oil rigs in the U.S. fell to the lowest since May, according to data from Baker Hughes. Meanwhile, International Energy Agency data suggested non-OPEC countries that pledged to curb output abandoned that effort in December. Production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by the most in almost two years that month. Oil is off to its best start to a year since 2001 after plunging almost 40 percent last quarter on fears of a global supply glut and weaker consumption. The Paris-based IEA expects relatively strong demand this year despite signs of a slowdown in the global economy. Meanwhile, OPEC and its partners including Russia have started to cut production to balance the market at a time when U.S. output is forecast to keep growing. “Oil is taking a short pause after surging to $54 last week,” with U.S. rig data contributing to the gain, said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “While U.S. output is rising and the trend is expected to continue, investors are getting a sense of security from OPEC’s production cuts.” West Texas Intermediate crude for February traded at $53.73 a barrel, down 7 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, at 5:21 p.m. in Tokyo. The contract jumped $1.73 to $53.80 on Friday to close at the highest level since Nov. 21, capping a weekly gain of 4.3 percent. Brent for March settlement fell 22 cents to $62.48 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract advanced $1.52 to $62.70 on Friday. The global benchmark crude was at an $8.55 premium to WTI for the same month. Even as U.S. rig count tumbled by 21 to 852, the biggest decline since May 2016, Energy Information Administration data last week showed American drillers pumped 11.9 million barrels a day. U.S. output is set to expand by 1.1 million barrels a day this year and may exceed Saudi Arabia’s maximum level within the next six months, according to the IEA. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether the OPEC+ coalition will cut enough production to counter the surge in U.S. output and clear a supply glut. Before the latest round of production cuts began this month, non-OPEC countries’ compliance rate in December was the lowest since the curbs started in 2017, according to Bloomberg calculations from IEA preliminary data. That’s in contrast with OPEC, which cut its production by 751,000 barrels a day last month, the biggest decline since they began a previous round of cutbacks, according to the group’s report last week. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest member, accounted for more than half the reduction.
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