石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯新加坡消息，分析师和船舶经纪人表示，由于液化天然气现货需求增加，交易量增长超过液化天然气船舶供应，预计2019年全球液化天然气航运现货市场仍将保持强劲。 提高现货运价可能降低地区间套利的经济性，从而使向亚洲客户运送液化天然气的成本更高，并影响到诸如美亚贸易航线等长途贸易，以及从欧洲向亚洲的再运输。但是，从长远来看，较高的费率可以激励航运公司和其他利益相关者投资建造新的液化天然气船舶，以满足运输需求并进一步发展现货市场。 根据标普全球普氏的评估，2018年液化天然气亚太平均现货运价为每天80771美元，而2017年为每天39800美元。液化天然气现货运价在2018年11月达到了每天19万美元的历史新高，而11月整个月的日平均价格为183333美元。 截至2018年底，液化天然气现货运价已调整为每天8.5万美元，2018年12月平均每天运价为133944美元，而去年同期为每天7.8万美元。 市场人士预计，2019年的平均现货租赁利率将保持强劲，但他们表示，超过创纪录的每天19万美元的水平取决于短期交易策略和市场基本面，而这些策略和基本面并非总是可持续的。 Poten & Partners的船舶经纪人Rolv Stokmo在去年12月的会议间隙表示：“对于2019年，液化天然气航运现货市场将同样强劲，甚至比我们2018年看到的还要强劲。” 詹晓晶摘自普氏能源资讯 原文如下： Growing LNG marketplace to drive spot shipping rates in 2019 The global LNG shipping spot market is expected to remain strong in 2019 on the back of higher spot LNG demand and trading volume growth outpacing LNG vessel supply, according to analysts and ship brokers. Higher spot freight rates could make inter-regional arbitrage less economic, making it costlier to ship LNG to Asian customers and impacting long-haul trades like the US-Asia trade route and reloads from Europe into Asia. However, in the long term higher rates could incentivize shipping companies and other stakeholders to invest in building new LNG ships to meet transportation demand and further develop the spot market. The Asia Pacific Day Rate averaged $80,771/day in 2018 compared with $39,800/day in 2017, according to S&P Global Platts assessments. It had hit an all-time high of $190,000/day in November 2018, with a daily average of $183,333 for the whole month. By the end of 2018, spot freight rates had corrected to $85,000/day, having averaged $133,944/day in December 2018, compared with $78,000/day in the same month a year earlier. Market participants expect average spot charter rates in 2019 to remain strong, but said that exceeding the record high levels of $190,000/day is dependent on short-term trading strategies and market fundamentals that are not always sustainable. “For 2019, the spot market will be equally strong or even stronger than what we have seen in 2018,” Poten & Partners’ shipbroker Rolv Stokmo said on the sidelines of a conference in December.
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