石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社纽约、休斯顿报道，页岩油田的高速增长推动美国2018年的原油产量增加16%，达到每天约1090万桶，高于沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯，同时由于大型石油公司和独立企业今年增加了油井，预计2019年产量将增加11%。但是，由于近段时间原油价格下降了40%，人们对供应过剩的担忧日益加剧，以及市场整体疲软，美国页岩气生产商对明年的钻探采取紧急措施，削减了在几周前才确定的预算。 这一逆转令人震惊，如页岩气生产商Centennial资源发展公司与竞争对手Diamondback能源和Parsley能源一起取消了明年的钻井平台扩建计划；Centennial还取消了2020年的生产目标，以及取消了增加2.5座钻井平台的计划。 12月底，Centennial在一份证券申报中表示，鉴于目前的宏观环境，它无法再坚持其2020年的预测，也无法在明年增加平台，而就在六周前，该公司还预测2020年的石油产量为65000桶/日，以每桶75美元的美国油价为基准，回报率很有吸引力。 与此同时，Diamondback能源公司首席执行官也表示：“二叠纪盆地的实际定价水平接近2016年底以来的最高水平，而同期的服务成本增长了约35%，如果大宗商品价格继续下跌，我们将进一步减少活动，以使我们的预算与预期的年度运营现金流相匹配。”该公司削减了3台钻机，并计划明年运营18至22座钻井平台，低于目前的24座。 而将于明年1月出任Parsley能源首席执行官的Matt Gallagher表示：“人们正在削减额外支出，减少额外的钻探，并专注于保持弹性。”该公司计划在增加产量的同时，将2019年的资本预算比2018年削减约15%。 除此之外，总部位于德克萨斯的石油生产商Teal自然资源公司对油价下跌也表示令人震惊，考虑削减开发项目和钻井平台；Goodrich石油公司本周还将其2019年资本支出计划削减了4000万美元；Abraxas石油公司也已经取消了1.08亿美元的预算草案，并将在明年年初公布新的预算草案；Ring能源公司则计划在其两座钻井平台中削减其中一座。 油价走软正在挤压企业，增加借贷成本，投资者出售了增加钻探预算的公司的股票，并要求其削减成本。而今年石油巨头埃克森美孚和雪佛龙的页岩扩张也推高了在德克萨斯州西部工作的小型公司的服务成本，进一步压低了利润率。有投资机构称，页岩气的削减是预计将出现的一批企业剥离钻井平台和削减支出预算的第一波浪潮中，投资者不断向石油和天然气生产商发出的信息是：无论油价是多少，都要保持在现金流范围内。 渣打银行在一份报告中表示：“二叠系以外的页岩公司似乎面临更大的财务困境，我们认为，如果油价保持在低位，它们需要缩减更多的活动。”而目前，页岩价格已接近盈亏平衡水平。根据今年月度合约的平均值，美国2019年原油期货价格本周跌至每桶50美元以下，接近美国最大油田二叠纪盆地页岩生产商支付成本所需的每桶46至50美元水平。 詹晓晶摘自路透社 原文如下： U.S. shale producers hit the brakes on 2019 spending NEW YORK/HOUSTON (Reuters) – U.S. shale producers are slamming the brakes on next year’s drilling with crude prices off 40 percent and mounting fears of oversupply, paring budgets that in some cases were set only weeks earlier. The reversal is alarming because blistering growth in shale fields has propelled U.S. crude output 16 percent to about 10.9 million barrels per day for 2018, above Saudi Arabia and Russia. Production has been expected to rise 11 percent more in 2019 as large oil firms and independents added wells this year. Shale producer Centennial Resource Development on Thursday joined rivals Diamondback Energy, and Parsley Energy in canceling drilling rig additions next year. Centennial, led by shale pioneer Mark Papa, withdrew its 2020 production target and canceled plans to add 2.5 drilling rigs, citing market weakness. “You’re really seeing folks pull back on extra spending, pull back on extra drilling and focus on being resilient,” said Matt Gallagher, president of Parsley Energy, who will become CEO in January. The company plans to cut its 2019 capital budget by about 15 percent compared to 2018 while increasing production. Right now, shale prices are close to break even levels. U.S. crude futures for 2019, based on an average of the year’s monthly contracts, this week dropped below $50 a barrel, near the $46-$50-per-barrel level that shale producers in the Permian Basin, the largest oil field in the United States, need to cover their costs. The price drop is “a shock,” said John Roby, chief executive of Dallas, Texas-based oil producer Teal Natural Resources LLC. “A lot of people are cutting back development programs and cutting rigs,” he said. On Friday, U.S. crude slipped below $46 a barrel. Centennial said in a securities filing it could no longer stand by its 2020 projections or add rigs next year “in light of the current macro environment.” Just six weeks ago, it forecast 2020 output of 65,000 bpd with “attractive” returns based on a U.S. oil price of $75 a barrel. “Realized pricing in the Permian Basin is near levels not seen since the end of 2016 while service costs have increased by about 35 percent during the same time period,” said Travis Stice, CEO of Diamondback. The company cut three rigs, and plans to operate 18 to 22 rigs next year, down from 24 now. “If commodity prices continue to decline, we will further reduce activity to match our budget to expected annual operating cash flow,” Stice said in a statement. Goodrich Petroleum Corp this week also cut its 2019 capital spending plan by $40 million and Abraxas Petroleum Corp said it has scrapped a $108 million budget draft and will release a new one early in the year. Ring Energy also disclosed plans to cut one of its two drilling rigs. Weaker oil prices are squeezing companies and increasing borrowing costs. Investors have sold shares in companies that increased their drilling budgets, pressuring for cuts. This year’s shale expansion by oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron also has helped drive up service costs for smaller companies working in West Texas, further pressuring margins. The shale cutbacks are the first of what is expected to be a wave of companies shedding rigs and slashing spending budgets, said Matthew Lemme, a portfolio manager with investment firm Cushing Asset Management. The message that investors continue to send oil and gas producers is: “Stay within cash flow no matter what the oil price is,” “Shale companies outside the Permian appear to face greater financial distress, and we think they would need to scale back activity more were prices to stay low,” Standard Chartered said in a note.
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