石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据世界石油休斯顿12月19日消息，如果原油价格持续暴跌，美国最大的油田可能即将停产。 就在10周前，二叠纪盆地还有望在2019年底前实现近100万桶/天的产量增长，可能超过欧佩克的第二大产油国伊拉克。现在，它可能根本不会增长，从全球石油市场中减少大量的预期产量。 页岩即使对价格的微小变化也非常敏感，二叠纪也无法幸免。根据总部位于奥斯陆的咨询公司Rystad Energy的数据，西德克萨斯中质原油价格为70美元/桶，到明年年底该地区的日产量可能达到490万桶，但如果价格为每桶40美元，产量可能会停滞在400万桶左右。 美国基准指数周二在纽约跌至46美元/桶以下，较10月初下跌近40％。在二叠纪盆地的中心米德兰，油价甚至更糟，跌至每桶38.99美元，这是自2016年油价暴跌以来的最低水平。 Rystad页岩分析副总裁Artem Abramov表示：“明年我们肯定会看到一些公司将重新审视他们的开采计划，而不是他们最初的想法。” 它已经开始发生了。Diamondback能源公司是二叠纪最大的油气生产商之一，该公司正在削减2019年的资本预算，预计支出约为29亿美元，低于分析师预计的32亿美元。 Rystad表示，二叠纪生产率的提高意味着，如果石油平均价格为50美元/桶，而经济增长停滞在40美元，那么产量不会下降，只会放缓。IHS Markit和RS Energy一致认为，在目前的价格水平下，产量可能会出现温和增长，因为二叠纪的公司在过去四年中通过提高生产率大幅降低了他们的油井成本。 页岩的一个主要优势是在钻井数周内，原油就会从油井中流出。这意味着页岩可以像水龙头一样打开或关闭，这取决于它在任何给定价格下是否盈利。对于渴望收益、现金流和股息的股票投资者来说，这或许没有什么安慰作用，但确实有助于石油市场的再平衡。 IHS Markit驻休斯顿分析师Raoul LeBlanc表示：“如果我们在2019年没有获得这些石油，那么它们只能等待在2020年，或者2021年，或者市场需要的任何时候出现。” 曹海斌 摘译自 世界石油 原文如下： Permian’s growth spurt at risk amid oil-price collapse The U.S.’s biggest oil field may be about to pump the brakes if crude keeps plunging. Just 10 weeks ago, the Permian basin was on course to grow almost 1 MMbpd by the end of 2019, potentially surpassing Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer. Now, it may not grow at all, removing a large chunk of expected production from global oil markets. Shale is highly sensitive even to small changes in prices and the Permian is not immune. With West Texas Intermediate oil at $70/bbl, the basin would likely produce 4.9 MMbpd by end of next year, but at $40/bbl, output will likely stagnate at around 4 MMbpd, according to Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy. The U.S. benchmark dipped below $46/bbl in New York on Tuesday, down almost 40% from early October. In Midland, the heart of the Permian, prices were even worse, touching $38.99/bbl, the lowest since the depths of the 2016 crash. “We’ll definitely see some companies next year revisit their activity plans versus what they initially had in mind,” said Artem Abramov, V.P. of shale analysis at Rystad. It’s already starting to happen. Diamondback Energy, one of the biggest Permian-only producers, is rowing back its 2019 capital budget, forecasting about $2.9 billion of spending, less than analysts’ estimates of $3.2 billion. The Permian’s better productivity means output isn’t dropping, just slowing down, if oil averages $50/bbl and halting growth at $40, Rystad said. IHS Markit and RS Energy, agree that modest growth is likely at current prices because companies in the Permian have dropped their well costs so much over the last four years through productivity improvements. One of the key advantages of shale is that crude flows from wells within weeks of drilling. That means shale can be turned on or off like a tap, depending on whether it’s profitable or unprofitable at any given price. That may be of no consolation to equity investors starved of earnings, cash flow and dividends but it does help to rebalance oil markets. “If we don’t get those bbl in 2019, they will simply be waiting to show up in 2020, or 2021, or whenever the market needs them,” said Raoul LeBlanc, a Houston-based analyst at IHS Markit.
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