石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据ICIS网12月11日消息 瑞士投资银行（UBS）分析师表示，汽车工业生产疲软、建筑市场萧条、油价下滑可能导致2019年欧洲化学品收入增速降至2015年以来的最低点。 德国化学制品生产商巴斯夫（BASF）上周下调2018年盈利预期后，该行业的平均有机销售量可能接近2015年创下的3%收缩率的记录，高于该行此前所预期的平稳增长。 瑞银还表示，明年是自2015年以来大宗商品化学品供应增长最快的一年，可能达到50%，超过2015年的水平。在中国政府打算大幅扩大其国内减排计划并减少基本化学品需求的同时，价格风险也在增加。 根据巴斯夫的预测，分析师对2018年第四季度多样化化学品生产商产量同比缩减1%的预测可能过于乐观，由于莱茵河的后勤问题，息税前利润（EBIT）受到2亿欧元的冲击。 瑞银表示，2015年的收入增长受到需求疲软和油价下跌的打击，明年，在终端市场疲软、中国需求疲软以及近期油价下跌的背景下，这些情况可能会重演。 行业库存已然居高不下，巴德尔银行最近针对2018年末和2019年初潜在的重大行业库存削减进行了指导，而去年同期的强劲购买活动则与之形成鲜明对比。 瑞银表示，尽管明年增长可能萎缩，但欧洲企业的资产负债表仍处于2010年以来的最高水平，可能投入600亿欧元，这意味着近年来强劲的兼并和收购可能将持续。 王磊 摘译自 ICIS 原文如下： Weakening automotive industry production, softer construction markets and a decline in oil pricing could lead in 2019 to the weakest revenue growth for European chemicals since 2015, according to analysts at investment bank UBS. Average organic sales for the sector could be closer to the 3% contraction recorded in 2015 than the flat growth the bank had previously guided for, following Germany-based chemicals producer BASF’s downgrade to its 2018 earnings outlook last week. UBS also said the strongest commodity chemicals supply growth since 2015 next year, potentially 50% above 2015 levels, increasing pricing risk at a time when the Chinese government looks set to dramatically expand its domestic emissions reduction programme and reduce basic chemicals demand. Analysts’ forecasts of a 1% year-on-year contraction in volumes for diversified chemicals producers in the fourth quarter of 2018 may be too optimistic in light of BASF’s projections, which include a €200m hit to earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) due to logistical woes on the River Rhine. Revenue growth in 2015 was hit by weak demand and a drop in oil pricing, and next year there may be a repeat of those conditions on the back of weaker end markets, softer China demand, and recent declines in oil pricing, UBS said. Industry inventories are already high, and Baader Bank recently guided for potentially significant industry destocking in late 2018 and early 2019, in contrast to the strong buying activity seen during the same period a year earlier. Despite potential for shrinking growth next year, balance sheets for European companies are at their strongest since 2010, with the potential for €60bn to be put to work, UBS said, meaning that strong mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in recent years may be set to continue.
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