石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社新加坡报道，在欧佩克和一些非欧佩克供应商上周五同意从明年1月起减产后, 布伦特原油周一上涨。尽管如此，由于经济放缓，明年的前景依然黯淡。 在格林尼治标准时间0601时，国际布伦特原油期货价格为每桶62.02美元，较上次收盘上涨35美分，涨幅0.6%。 上周五，在欧佩克和包括重量级俄罗斯在内的一些非欧佩克产油国宣布他们将削减每天120万桶石油供应之后，石油价格飙升。欧佩克成员国计划削减800000桶/日，非欧佩克成员国计划削减400000桶/日。 交易员表示，利比亚萨拉拉油田（日产量为31.5万桶）的关闭也推动了布伦特原油的上涨。 不过, 由于蓬勃发展的美国石油工业没有参与宣布的减产计划, 美国西得克萨斯中质原油期货走弱, 从上一次结算中下跌12美分, 至每桶 $52.59 美元。 由欧佩克牵头的供应限制措施将从明年1月份开始实施，与2018年10月的产出水平进行比较。
伯恩斯坦能源公司的分析师周一表示：“我们的关键结论是，油价将在2019年保持在每桶70美元左右。”尽管有所削减，但由于伯恩斯坦将原油需求预测从先前的每天150万桶降至2019年的每天130万桶，因此预计每桶价格仍将下降6美元。 美国银行摩根士丹利表示，这一削减可能足以在2019年上半年左右平衡市场，防止库存增加。该银行还表示，预计布伦特到2019年第二季度时将达到每桶67.5美元，低于此前的77.5美元。 并不是所有的分析师都认为这些削减足以结束供过于求的局面。 阿联酋NBD银行商品分析师Edward Bell在周日的一份报告中表示：“削减规模不足以将市场推回到供不应求的状态，由于新的产量水平，预计2019年第一季度的市场盈余将达到每天120万桶左右。” 自10月份以来，由于经济放缓的迹象，油价大幅下跌，布伦特原油价格下跌了近30%。 詹晓晶摘自路透社 原文如下： Brent crude oil rises after producer supply cut, but outlook still weak Brent crude oil rose on Monday after producer club OPEC and some non-affiliated suppliers last Friday agreed to a supply cut from January. Despite this, the outlook for next year remains muted on the back of an economic slowdown. International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.02 per barrel at 0601 GMT, up 35 cents, or 0.6 percent, from their last close. Prices surged on Friday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producers including heavyweight Russia announced they would cut oil supply by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), with an 800,000-bpd reduction planned by OPEC members and 400,000 bpd by countries not affiliated with the group. The shutdown of the 315,000-bpd El Sharara oilfield in Libya also helped push Brent, traders said. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were weaker, however, dropping 12 cents from their last settlement to $52.59 per barrel, weighed by surging U.S. output as the booming American oil industry is not taking part in the announced cuts. The OPEC-led supply curbs will be made from January, measured against October 2018 output levels. “Our key conclusion is that oil prices will be well supported around the $70 per barrel level for 2019,” analysts at Bernstein Energy said on Monday. Despite the cuts, that was still a price forecast reduction of $6 per barrel as Bernstein lowered its crude oil demand forecast from 1.5 million bpd previously to 1.3 million bpd for 2019. U.S. bank Morgan Stanley said the cut was “likely sufficient to balance the market in 1H19 and prevent inventories from building”. It added that it expected “Brent to reach $67.5 per barrel by 2Q19, down from $77.5 before.” Not all analysts expect the cuts to be sufficient to end oversupply. Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD bank, said in a note on Sunday that “the scale of the cuts…isn’t enough to push the market back into deficit” and that he expected “a market surplus of around 1.2 million bpd in Q1 with the new production levels.” Oil prices have fallen sharply since October on signs of an economic slowdown, with Brent losing almost 30 percent in value.
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