石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯休斯顿12月7日消息，由于目前和即将到来的天气状况胜过大部分与五年平均水平相符的库存下降，NYMEX 1月天然气期货合约周五上涨16.1美分，收于4.488美元/ MMBtu，。 周五即月合约交易价格在4.231美元/ MMBtu至4.57美元/ MMBtu之间。 美国能源情报署（US Energy Information Administration）的数据显示，在截至11月30日的一周内，美国天然气库存量下降630亿立方英尺，至2.991万亿立方英尺，较去年同期相比下降了19％，与五年平均3.716万亿立方英尺相比，仍有20%左右的缺口。 这一数据与过去5年580亿立方英尺的平均水平基本一致，并且与普氏分析公司调查的分析师达成的预期数据一致。 然而，由于过去几天和未来一段时间需求强劲，现货市场2月和3月合约的价格出现大幅上涨。 2月合约上涨16.1美分收于4.378美元，3月合约上涨23.1美分至4.155美元/ MMBtu 过去三天的总需求量平均为1121亿立方英尺/日，较去年同期的912亿立方英尺/日增长近210亿立方英尺/日。 普氏数据显示，预计周五需求将达到1133亿立方英尺，并在周末至周一平均日需求下降30亿立方英尺，降至1100亿立方英尺 IAF Advisors分析师Kyle Cooper表示，一些模型的长期气温预测显示是1月份气温低于正常水平，再加上需求连续四天超过1000亿立方英尺，它正在推动市场在周五走高。 然而，美国国家气象局预计1月份美国大部分地区气温将高于平均水平。 普氏数据显示，美国干气总产量预计每天下降8亿立方英尺，至周五的84亿立方英尺。过去两周平均产量接近86 0亿立方英尺/日。 NYMEX结算价格被视为初步价格，可能会在美国东部时间晚上7点公布最终结算价格之前发生变化。 曹海斌 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： NYMEX January natural gas jumps on long-term weather forecast, strong demand The NYMEX January natural gas futures contract jumped 16.1 cents to settled at $4.488/MMBtu Friday as current and upcoming weather trumped a storage withdrawal that was largely in line with the five-year average. The front-month contract traded between $4.231/MMBtu and $4.57/MMBtu on Friday. The storage withdrawal of 63 Bcf in the week that ended November 30 put US gas inventories at 2.991 Tcf, according to the US Energy Information Administration, down 19% compared with a year earlier and at about a 20% deficit to the five-year average of 3.716 Tcf. The storage pull falls largely in line with the five-year average of 58 Bcf and also with the draw expected by a consensus of analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts Analytics. However, the prompt, February and March contracts saw a significant jump in prices on strong demand over the past few days and the upcoming period. The February contract jumped 16.1 cents to settle at $4.378, while the March contract climbed 23.1 cents to $4.155/MMBtu Total demand averaged 112.1 Bcf/d over the past three days, up nearly by 21 Bcf/d from 91.2 Bcf/d in the same period a year ago. Demand is expected to hit 113.3 Bcf Friday and drop 3 Bcf for an average of 110 Bcf/d over the weekend through Monday, Platts Analytics data showed. The long-term temperature forecast in some models is for a colder-than-normal January, and when combined with four consecutive days of demand above 100 Bcf, it is moving the market higher Friday, Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors, said. However, the US National Weather Service expects above-average temperatures in January across much of the US. Total US dry gas production is set to drop 800 MMcf day on day to 84 Bcf Friday, Platts Analytics data showed. Production averaged nearly 86 Bcf/d over the past two weeks. The NYMEX settlement price is considered preliminary and subject to change until a final settlement price is posted at 7 pm EST.
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