石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯11月22日伦敦消息称，普氏调查的顶级银行和石油经纪商表示，尽管全球需求阴云密布，但布伦特原油(Brent crude oil)明年将回升至平均每桶75美元以上，因欧佩克及其产油国盟友正采取行动，防止新的供应过剩，以保护油价。 根据对11家顶级石油预测机构的调查显示，2019年近月布伦特原油现货平均价格将从10月初预测的每桶78.51美元降至75.5美元。预计今年布伦特原油价格平均为73.91美元/桶，高于迄今为止的73.26美元/桶，低于上个月74.40美元/桶的调查结果。 在一系列因素削弱市场前景后，油价在10月3日创下86美元/桶的四年高位后跌幅已经超过25％。美国页岩气产量超预期，沙特和俄罗斯出口激增。 在其他地方，利比亚和伊拉克的石油产量继续超出普遍预期，委内瑞拉的石油工业并没有像一些市场观察人士所担心的那样崩溃。 虽然委内瑞拉的原油供应量自2016年以来已下降超过100万桶/日，但最近的数据显示产量正在趋平。国际能源机构估计，委内瑞拉过去五个月的产量日一直在125-130万桶。 在需求方面，石油市场担心需求增长下滑，特别是在美国以外地区，部分原因是近期油价飙升。 但由于欧佩克及其主要产油国盟友将考虑在12月维也纳会议上考虑恢复减产以收紧市场，大多数市场观察人士相信明年油价将从目前水平回升。。 汇丰银行上周在一份报告中表示：“欧佩克表示决心不让市场在2019年重新出现供过于求的局面，我们认为它已明确显示其有意维持每桶70美元的油价。” 在欧佩克主要成员国发出强烈信号之后，该银行表示预计将在12月6日的会议上正式宣布每天至少减产100万桶。 法国兴业银行还认为欧佩克将在12月份将原油供应减少100万桶/日以上，以避免“2019年严重供过于求”并将布伦特原油价格维持在70-80美元的预期区间内。巴克莱指出，鉴于市场已预计减产100万桶/日，减产幅度若小于100万桶，可能导致市场进一步走软。 该银行在11月15日的一份报告中表示，它认为目前的价格已经超过了下行区间，预计年底会出现反弹。 该银行将其2019年布伦特原油预测维持在72美元/桶不变，并继续认为明年的风险偏向于上行。 曹海斌 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： Oil price outlook in 2019 little fazed by market jitters Brent crude oil will recover to average above $75/b next year despite clouds looming over global demand as OPEC and its producer allies move to defend prices by preventing a new supply glut, according to top banks and oil brokers surveyed by S&P Global Platts. Front-month spot Brent will average $75.50/b in 2019, down from forecasts of $78.51/b in early October, according to a survey of 11 top oil forecasters. Brent prices this year are expected to average $73.91/b, compared with $73.26/b so far and down from last month’s $74.40/b survey result. Oil prices have slumped over 25% since hitting near four-year highs of $86/b on October 3, after a series of factors weakened the market outlook. US shale output has beaten expectations, Saudi and Russian exports have surged. Elsewhere, Libya and Iraq have continued to pump more oil than widely expected and Venezuela’s oil industry has not imploded as some market watchers feared. While Venezuela’s crude supplies have fallen by more than 1 million b/d since 2016, recent data suggest production is flattening out. The IEA estimates that Venezuelan output has been in the range 1.25-1.30 million b/d for the past five months. On the demand side, oil markets are concerned about demand growth slipping, particularly outside the US, in part due to the recent run-up in oil prices. But with OPEC and its key producer allies set to consider resuming output cuts to tighten the market at their meeting on December in Vienna, most market watchers believe prices are set to recover from current levels next year. “OPEC has indicated its determination not to let the market slip back into oversupply in 2019, and we think it has given a clear indication of its intention to defend prices in the $70s,” HSBC said in a note last week. Following strong signaling from OPEC’s key players, the bank said it expects a cut of at least 1 million b/d to be formalized at the December 6 meeting. Societe Generale also believes OPEC will cut crude supply by 1 million b/d “or more” in December to avoid “severe oversupply in 2019 and to maintain Brent prices within the desired range of $70-80.” Barclays noted that, given the market already expects a 1 million b/d cut, anything less might could lead to further market weakness. In a November 15 note, the bank said it believes current prices have overshot to the downside and expects a rebound by year-end. The bank is keeping its 2019 Brent forecast unchanged at $72/b and continues to see risks skewed to the upside next year.
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