石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯11月16日丹佛报道称，美国电力行业天然气价格弹性的收窄可能会在今年冬季推动亨利中心基准价格的上行风险，从而为最近将纽约商交所（NYMEX）推升至近五年以来最高点的反弹火上浇油。 普氏数据显示，本月美国平均天然气发电需求量接近24.8亿立方英尺/日，比去年同期高出1.6亿立方英尺/日或近7％。 上周五，亨利中心的现货价格大幅下跌近35美分，至4.27美元/百万英热（ MMBtu）。以此同时，普氏数据显示，纽约商交所的月交割合约从周四的大幅下跌中反弹约15美分，收于4.19美元/ MMBtu。 一月份已超过4美元/ MMBtu的强劲期货和远期价格，反映了市场对冬季供应情况的担忧日益加剧。 由于强劲的电力消耗，住宅商业和液化天然气出口需求已开始推动对天然气储备的大幅增加，本月美国天然气供需平衡已经跌破前五年的水平。 周四，美国能源情报署（EIA）估计，美国总储存量为3.247万亿立方英尺，或自2003年入冬以来的最低水平。 EIA数据显示，截至11月16日的一周，普氏分析已预测存储量将达到119亿立方英尺，这将超过五年平均水平的94亿立方英尺。 徐蕾 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： Analysis: Power burn to drive upside risk for winter gas prices Narrowing gas price elasticity in the US power sector could drive upside risk at the benchmark Henry Hub this winter, adding fuel to a rally that recently lifted the NYMEX to its highest in nearly five years. Already this month, US gas demand from power generation is averaging nearly 24.8 Bcf/d, outpacing demand over the same period last year by 1.6 Bcf/d or nearly 7%, S&P Global Platts Analytics data shows. On Friday, cash prices at the Henry Hub were down sharply, falling nearly 35 cents to $4.27/MMBtu. On the NYMEX, meanwhile, the prompt-month contract rebounded roughly 15 cents from Thursday’s steep decline, settling at $4.19/MMBtu, S&P Global Platts data showed. Strong futures and forward prices, which are now above $4/MMBtu through January, reflect the market’s growing angst over the winter supply scenario. Already this month, the US gas supply-demand balance has dipped below the prior five-year range as strong power burn, residential-commercial and LNG export demand have begun prompting hefty draws on storage. On Thursday, the US Energy Information Administration estimated the aggregate US storage level at 3.247 Tcf, or its lowest pre-winter level since 2003. For the week ending November 16, Platts Analytics is already forecasting a 119 Bcf draw on storage, which would outpace the five-year average pull by 94 Bcf, EIA data shows.
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