石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯 国际能源组织(IEA)在其月度报告中称,布伦特原油价格的下跌打破了10月份炼油利润率降至2014年以来最低水平的局面。 报告指出，尽管总体上出现了“急剧”的下跌，但由于差异的扩大，一些低端利润率有所上升，包括欧洲和新加坡的单一利润率，这主要受到炼油厂运营的减少和燃料油折扣收紧的影响，和美国中西部利润率一样，美国中西部的利润率因受到在PADD 2地区利用率的降低而增加。但总体而言，十月的下跌是由原油价格的上涨和库存增加所致。 三年来，炼油厂第三季度的产量首次足以满足季节性增长的需求，但也足以囤积库存，从而创造了2014年第三季度以来最高的成品库存量。 该报告称，10月至12月的日产量将增加270万桶，季节性需求下降，预计产品库存将继续增加。 如果综合利润率再次下降，并在本季度剩余的时间里维持在几乎不高的水平，那么则可以削减日产量。不过IEA表示，原油价格的下降可能会阻止炼油利润率的近一步下降。 该组织已将2019年的日产量预测维持在120万桶的增长速度，这将导致每日50万桶成品油库存的增加。 IEA表示，明年将面临轻质馏分油“持续疲软”以及来自美国页岩油增量的压力。 同时，根据这份报告，10月份轻质馏分油，像汽油和石脑油“遭受了尤为严重的”需求疲软。 IEA表示：“我们对今年全球汽油需求增长的估计是80000桶/日，这是2011年以来最低的年度水平。” 王磊 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： The drop in indicative crude oil refining margins in October to their lowest level since 2014 has been halted by falling Brent crude prices, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report. Despite the “precipitous” drop overall, some sour margins had increased due to wider differentials, including simple margins in Europe and Singapore, boosted by lower refinery runs and narrowing fuel oil discounts, as well as US Midwest margins that had been boosted by lower utilization rates in PADD 2, the report said. Overall, the drop in October was driven both by higher crude prices and a build-up of stocks. For the first time in three years, refiners’ Q3 throughput was sufficient to cover seasonally rising demand but also to build stocks, resulting “in the highest refined product stock builds” since Q3 2014. With runs set to increase 2.7 million b/d from October to December and demand seasonally declining “product inventories are expected to continue building”, the report said. Run cuts could be lowered if complex margins fall again and “remain at barely positive levels” for the rest of the quarter. However, lower crude prices may prevent a further drop in refining margins, the IEA said. The agency has retained its 2019 runs forecast at 1.2 million b/d growth, which would result in 0.5 million b/d refined products stock build. Next year could see pressure from the “continued weakness” in the light distillates complex and the ability of incremental US shale barrels to find home, the IEA said. Meanwhile in October, light distillates such as gasoline and naphtha “suffered especially badly” on lackluster demand, according to the report. “Our estimate for global gasoline demand growth this year is a puny 80,000 b/d, the lowest annual level since 2011,” the IEA said.
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