石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据俄罗斯卫星新闻社11月13日莫斯科报道，根据国际能源署（IEA）日前发布的《世界能源展望2018》报告，IEA把2025年的油价预测上调了6%，至每桶88美元以及把2040年油价预测上调了0.9%，至每桶112美元。 报告称，考虑到地缘政治事件、委内瑞拉产出下降以及主要石油出口国作出的决定影响了生产前景，油价在9月份自2014年以来首次突破了每桶80美元大关。 报告说：“在2014年油价暴跌之后，美国致密油产量的持续扩张以及石油消费可能发生重大结构性变化的前景支撑了一种观点，即油价将在更长时间内保持低位，甚至可能永远保持低位。但事实并非如此。” 根据这份报告，考虑到当前各国的能源政策和已公布的计划，预计油价将从2017年的每桶52美元逐渐升至2025年的每桶88美元、2030年的每桶96美元、2035年的每桶105美元和2040年的每桶112美元。 此外，IEA预计，全球石油需求将从2017年的每日9480万桶增至2040年的每日1.063亿桶。 李峻 编译自 俄罗斯卫星新闻社 原文如下： IEA Improves Forecast of Oil Price to $88 Per Barrel in 2025,to $112 in 2040 The International Energy Agency (IEA) has improved its forecast for oil price by 6 percent to $88 per barrel in 2025 and by 0.9 percent to $112 per barrel in 2040, according to IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2018 report. In September, the oil price surpassed $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014 in light of geopolitical events, the decrease in Venezuelan output, and decisions made by major oil exporters, which affected production prospects, according to the report. “In the wake of the fallout from the 2014 oil price crash, the continued expansion of tight oil production in the United States and the prospect of major structural changes in oil consumption underpinned a view that the oil price was set to stay lower for longer, perhaps forever. The reality has been different,” the report read. According to the report, taking into account current countries’ energy policies and their announced plans, oil price is projected to gradually increase from the average price of $52 per barrel in 2017 to $88 per barrel in 2025, $96 in 2030, $105 in 2035 and $112 in 2040. Moreover, the IEA expects world oil demand to increase from 94.8 million barrels per day in 2017 to 106.3 million barrels per day in 2040.
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