石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社11月14日报道称，国际货币基金组织（IMF）一位高级官员表示，油价的上涨推动了IMF对海湾合作委员会（GCC）主要石油出口国今明两年的增长预期。 IMF中东和中亚部门主管Jihad Azour周二在迪拜举行的新闻发布会上对记者表示，“在GCC国家和我们在2017年目睹的市场收缩之后，今年的增长将恢复，并将达到2.4％，明年预计将达到3％。而2017年这一比例为负0.4％。” IMF今年5月的最近数据此前曾估计，GCC成员国的GDP增长率为1.9％，明年为2.6％。 然而，IMF的区域主管表示，私营部门和教育等部门需要进行更多投资，以减少整个地方经济的增长效应。 IMF已经从4月份发布的预测中上调了对阿联酋的预测，此前IMF曾预测，阿联酋今年的GDP增长率为2％，2019年为3％。Azour表示增长主要是由于油价上涨，但IMF没有改变对沙特阿拉伯的预测。 GCC和其他石油出口国的经济受到2014年底和2015年油价大幅下跌的影响。石油价格在去年开始上涨，并在欧佩克与非欧佩克国家于2016年达成历史性协议削减石油供应后趋于稳定。 Azour表示，需要对教育和私营部门进行更多投资，同时对管理和扶持中小型企业的规则进行更深入的改革。 徐蕾 摘译自 路透社 原文如下： Higher oil prices boosts GCC growth forecast: IMF official The rise of oil prices have pushed up growth forecasts for the major oil exporting countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for this year and next by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to a top official in the fund. “In the GCC countries and following a contraction that we witnessed in 2017, growth will recover this year and will reach 2.4 percent and for next year it is expected to be at 3 percent. In fact, it is coming from minus 0.4 (percent) in 2017,” Jihad Azour, the director of the fund’s Middle East and Central Asia department, told reporters at a press conference in Dubai on Tuesday. A recent update by the IMF in May this year had previously estimated that GDP growth in the GCC would be 1.9 percent this year and 2.6 percent next year. However, the fund’s regional director has said that more investments are needed in the private sector and in sectors such as education to trickle down the growth effect throughout their local economies. The IMF has increased its forecast for the UAE from a previous estimate it issued in April, which predicted a GDP growth increase by 2 percent this year and 3 percent in 2019. Azour said the increase was mainly due to the rise in oil prices, but the fund did not change its forecast for Saudi Arabia. The economies of the GCC and other oil exporting nations have been harmed by a sharp drop in oil prices that occurred in late 2014 and 2015. Oil prices started to rise last year and have stabilised following a historic agreement between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries in December 2016 to cut oil supply. Azour said that more investments in education and the private sector were required, along with deeper reforms in rules governing and enabling small and medium-sized industries.
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