石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社11月13日消息称，欧佩克认为，由于全球经济放缓抑制需求且竞争对手原油供应激增，2019年对本国原油的需求降幅将超过预期。 卡特尔月度报告中公布的数据显示，沙特阿拉伯和其他一些成员国正在谈论再次减产的原因。这些数据可能支持他们在下个月维也纳重要会议召开前大幅削减供应的理由。 欧佩克表示，明年全球对该组织原油的需求将达到每天约3150万桶。这比两个月前的预测每天低50万桶，比目前的产量少140万桶。 欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德巴金多周一表示，非欧佩克石油供应的复苏开始显得“令人担忧”，他补充说，他认为欧佩克及其盟国需要在下月卡特尔会议上就每天减产100万桶达成一致。虽然周末没有做出减少供应的决定，但本月的报告将促成组织内部的一致意见，推动新一轮减产。 该组织写道：“尽管石油市场目前已达到平衡，但对2019年非欧佩克石油供应增长的预测显示，世界石油库存增长超过了世界石油需求的增长，导致市场供大于求的局面不断扩大。” 预计2019年非欧佩克国家的供应将增加12万桶。尽管加拿大、中国、巴西和墨西哥的产量预测均有所下调。 与此同时，由于对新兴市场经济体发展状况的担忧仍在继续，全球石油需求增长预测将减少7万桶/天。非经合组织地区正面临“经济调整”，全球经济总体发展状况仍存在不确定性。 根据该组织编制的外部估计，欧佩克10月原油日产量增加了127000桶。增幅最大的是阿拉伯联合酋长国和沙特阿拉伯，而供应继续下滑。 曹海斌 摘译自 彭博社 原文如下： OPEC Sees Demand for Its Crude Declining Faster as Rivals Surge OPEC sees demand for its own crude falling even faster than expected in 2019 as a slowing global economy crimps demand and rival supplies surge. The figures, published in the cartel’s monthly report, underline why Saudi Arabia and some other members are talking about cutting production again. The data could bolster their case for a significant supply reduction before a crucial meeting in Vienna next month. Global appetite for the group’s crude will be about 31.5 million barrels a day next year, OPEC said. That’s 500,000 barrels a day lower than its forecast just two months ago and about 1.4 million below current production. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said Monday that the resurgence of non-OPEC supply was beginning to look “alarming,” adding that he saw the need for the group and its allies to agree on a cut of 1 million barrels a day when the cartel meets next month. While no decision to reduce supply was taken over the weekend, this month’s report will add to the chorus of views within the group, pushing for new cuts. “Although the oil market has reached a balance now, the forecasts for 2019 for non-OPEC supply growth indicate higher volumes outpacing the expansion in world oil demand, leading to widening excess supply in the market,” the group wrote. Forecasts for non-OPEC supply growth in 2019 were increased by 120,000 barrels a day. This was despite production outlooks for Canada, China, Brazil and Mexico all being revised down. At the same time, global oil demand growth forecast was cut by 70,000 barrels a day as concerns continue to swirl over the health of emerging market economies. The non-OECD region is facing “economic adjustments” and there are still uncertainties about the overall health of the global economy. OPEC’s crude production rose by 127,000 barrels a day in October, according to outside estimates compiled by the group. The biggest increases were from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
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