石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯新加坡11月14日消息称，洲际交易所(ICE)布伦特(Brent)原油期货价格不断下跌，导致布伦特/迪拜原油掉期交易，洲际交易所布伦特原油相对于迪拜基准原油的溢价触及近4个月低点。 消息人士称，高硫燃料等重质原油的高裂解利润率有助于限制中型重质迪拜原油等级的下跌，这也有助于缩小EFS价差。 市场消息人士称，布伦特原油价格暴跌是导致价差走弱的一个重要原因。 近月洲际交易所(ICE)布伦特原油期货合约在10月上半月的交易价超过80美元/桶，在剩下的半月交易价超过75美元/桶 ，在一个月内下跌超过16美元/桶，周二结算价为65.47美元/桶。 普氏能源资讯显示，近月期洲际交易所(ICE)布伦特(Brent)原油期货合约最近一次跌破每桶70美元是在4月份。 分析师表示，鉴于俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯的石油产量创下历史新高，加之美国库存不断增加，市场对全球供应过剩的担忧压低了油价。 瑞穗银行（Mizuho Bank）高级经济学家Vishnu Varathan表示，目前供应仍然非常充裕。 根据官方数据，10月份沙特阿拉伯产量为1070万桶/日，接近历史最高水平，而俄罗斯10月原油产量为1140万桶/日，创历史新高。 欧佩克及其盟友国正在考虑削减供应的可能性。沙特能源部长哈立德法利赫周一表示，欧佩克及其盟国将需要减产100万桶/日，扭转今年6月商定的增产计划。 与此同时，普氏周一调查的分析师表示，截至11月9日当周的美国原油库存预计将增加239万桶。 如果美国能源情报署周三晚间发布的官方报告证实了这一消息，这将是原油库存连续第八周上涨，这是自2017年初以来的最长的上涨周期。 欧佩克在其周二发布的月度石油市场报告中估计， 2019年原油需求将减少110万桶/日。至3150万桶，进一步增加下行压力。 该报告还将2019年非欧佩克国家的石油供应增长数据修订为223万桶/日，至平均每日6209万桶。 陈菲 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： Slump in Brent futures push front month EFS to near-four month lows Falling ICE Brent crude oil futures prices have caused the Brent/Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps, a key indicator of ICE Brent’s premium to benchmark cash Dubai, to touch near four-month lows. Higher cracking margins for heavier crude grades like high sulfur fuel have helped in capping the fall of medium heavy Dubai crude grade which has also contributed in the crunching of the EFS spread, sources said. The slump seen in Brent prices has been a strong reason for the spread to weaken, market sources said. The front-month ICE Brent Futures contract which was trading above $80/b for the first half of October and above $75/b for the remaining half, lost more than $16/b within a month to settle at $65.47/b on Tuesday. The last time front-month ICE Brent Futures contract settled below $70/b was during April, Platts data showed. Concerns on a potential global supply glut in the market, given record high productions from Russia and Saudi Arabia amid increasing inventories in the US, have pressured prices down, analysts said. “Supply remains very flush at the moment, ” Vishnu Varathan, senior economist at Mizuho Bank said. In October, Saudi Arabia produced 10.7 million b/d, a near record high while Russia produced a record high of 11.4 million b/d of crude in October, according to official data. OPEC and its allies are mulling the possibility of cutting back their supply with Saudi Energy minister, Khalid al-Falih stating on Monday, that OPEC and its allies would need to cut 1 million b/d , reversing the production hike agreed in June this year. Meanwhile, US crude inventory for the week ended November 9 was expected to have increased by 2.39 million barrels, according to analysts surveyed on Monday by Platts. If confirmed by the Energy Information Administration’s official report out late Wednesday, this would mark the eighth consecutive week of increase for crude stocks — the longest upward run since early 2017 Adding further downside pressure, OPEC in its monthly oil market report released Tuesday estimated demand for crude to fall 1.1 million b/d to 31.50 million in 2019. The report also revised its non-OPEC supply growth figure for 2019 up to 2.23 million b/d, to an average of 62.09 million b/d.
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