石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯 由于石油输出国组织（OPEC）和非石油输出国组织的合伙人透露将削减2019年的原油产量，星期一中午欧洲原油期货价格上涨。 格林尼治时间11时50分，伦敦洲际交易所（ICE）1月布伦特原油期货上涨77美分，每桶70.95美元。纽约商业交易所（NYMEX）12月轻质低硫原油合约上涨27美分，每桶60.46美元。一位德国商业银行分析师在一份报告中指出，随着新一周的到来，布伦特正在大幅上涨。 沙特能源部长法利赫在周一表示，OPEC及其合伙人将从10月份的产量上削减至少100万桶/日，以避免供应过剩。 法利赫在阿布扎比举行的OPEC会议上说：“我们将采取灵活的态度。”一天前，他曾担任该监测委员会会议的副主席。 他说：“有很多设想在2-3周内可能会发生变化。”并补充说，周日的会议上监测委员会并没有提出具体的产量削减。 然而，该委员会表示需要考虑一项维持市场平衡的新战略，包括扭转6月份达成的100万桶/日产量增长的协议。 同样在周日，沙特阿拉伯表示，由于需求疲软，预计12月份的石油出口将减少5万桶/日，而俄罗斯能源部长亚历山大·诺瓦克则表示，2019年初的市场盈余为100万桶/日至140万桶/日。 几个月来，美国这一举措将严重影响全球石油供应，从而导致市场收紧。 但随后由于主要生产商的产量增加，再加上美国的豁免，使得制裁的限制低于预期，因此在2019年年初市场的局面将会改变。 德国商业银行分析师表示，这些因素的结合意味着今年底和明年石油市场存在严重供过于求的风险。 这又将引发关于OPEC和其合伙人是否会恢复生产以稳定市场的问题。 然而，星期一的价格上涨似乎受到美国产出增长信号的限制。星期五贝克休斯公司的报告显示，自5月份以来，美国石油钻机数量出现了一周以来最大的增长，最近一周钻井平台的数量上升了12。 本周市场正在等待进一步的信息，包括OPEC周二公布的月度石油市场报告和国际能源机构周三公布的月度石油市场报告。 王磊 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： Crude oil futures were higher at midday in Europe Monday, as OPEC and non-OPEC partners hinted at production cuts going into 2019. At GMT 1150, ICE January Brent futures were up 77/b cents at $70.95/b, while the NYMEX December light sweet crude contract was up 27 cents/b, at $60.46/b. “Brent is making significant gains as the new week gets underway,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note. On Monday, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said OPEC and its partners would need to cut at least 1 million b/d from October’s output levels in order to avoid oversupply, according to the group’s analysis. “We are going to be flexible,” Falih said at the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi, a day after co-chairing the OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee meeting. “There are a lot of assumptions that may change in 2-3 weeks time,” he said, adding that a key monitoring committee that met Sunday did not recommend specific cuts. However, the committee did say it would need to consider a new strategy to maintain market balance, including reversing the 1 million b/d production rise agreed in June. Also on Sunday, Saudi Arabia said it expected to cut its oil exports in December by as much as 50,000 b/d, citing softening demand, while Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said market surpluses for early 2019 range from 1 million b/d to 1.4 million b/d. That apparent turnaround came after months of expectation that the arrival of US sanctions on Iranian oil would take a significant bite out of global supply, tightening the market as a result. But subsequent gains in output from major producers, paired with exemptions by the US which have made the sanctions less restrictive than expected, have flipped the script on market fundamentals in early 2019. “The combination of these factors means there is a risk of a sizeable oversupply on the oil market late this year and next year,” Commerzbank analysts said. That, in turn, has raised questions about whether OPEC and partners would bring back production cuts to steady the market. However, on Monday price gains appeared to be capped by further signals of rising output in the US. Friday’s Baker Hughes report showed the largest week-on-week rise in the US oil rig count since May, with the rig-count rising by 12 in the latest week. The market was waiting further fundamental cues this week, including OPEC’s monthly oil market report on Tuesday, and the International Energy Agency’s monthly oil market report on Wednesday.
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