石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯伦敦10月25日消息称，国际能源署周四表示，尽管西方限制了俄罗斯获取技术和资金的渠道，但俄罗斯仍有能力在未来十年内将石油日产量维持在1000万桶以上。 到2030年，俄罗斯的日产量将超过1000万桶。 投资水平，税收政策是石油部门的关键 委内瑞拉到2040年将无法达到250万桶/日 国际能源署在对主要石油和天然气生产商的长期展望报告中指出， 在油价下跌期间，俄罗斯持续加大上游支出，旨在遏制西伯利亚西部和伏尔加-乌拉尔盆地(Volga-Urals basin)主要产油油田的产量下滑，并促进复苏。 因此，国际能源机构表示，预计到2030年，俄罗斯石油日产量仍将超过1000万桶，然后在2040年逐步下降至940万桶/日。 新的预测标志着IEA最新的长期能源展望大幅向上修正，IEA在2017年11月预测俄罗斯石油流量将在2020年左右达到峰值，然后在2030年之前下滑至1000万桶/日以下， 并在2040年降至860万桶/天。 俄罗斯能源部表示，俄罗斯可能同意在年底前与石油输出国组织（OPEC）扩大现有石油产量合作协议，该国9月份石油日产量达到约1136万桶，创历史新高。 与此同时，由于委内瑞拉持续的政治和经济动荡使其石油产量自2016年初以来几乎减半，IEA对委内瑞拉的长期石油前景更为悲观， 根据普氏数据显示，原油日产量从2016年1月的235万桶下降至2018年9月的122万桶。 石油收入减少，债务增加，投资和产出下降导致石油生产商和服务公司纷纷逃离，IMF估计2018年通货膨胀率将达到100万。 根据IEA最新的核心设想，委内瑞拉的石油产量将在2020年中期触底，然后在2040年开始逐步回升至250万桶/日。 去年，国际能源机构预测委内瑞拉的石油日产量到2040年将达到290万桶，高于2025年的210万桶/日。 IEA表示，当前的产量下降的逆转取决于提高基础设施和现有设施维护的资本支出。可能推迟委内瑞拉最终石油开采的主要制约包括由于油田疏忽、缺乏资金以及近年来委内瑞拉的专业知识的遗忘而对委内瑞拉的生产潜力造成长期潜在损害。 IEA表示，“几乎没有迹象显示委内瑞拉的宏观经济或政策变化将阻止其产量的下降。” 曹海斌 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： IEA raises long-term oil outlook for Russia, cuts Venezuela’s Russia is well placed to maintain oil production levels above 10 million b/d beyond the next decade, despite western limiting its access to technology and capital, the International Energy Agency said Thursday. Russia can hold output over 10 million b/d into 2030s. Venezuela seen unable to hit 2.5 million b/d by 2040. Aided by consistent upstream spending through the oil price downturn, Russia aims to halt declines and improve recovery at its major producing fields Western Siberia and the Volga-Urals basin, the IEA noted in a new long-term outlook for major oil and gas producers. As a result, the IEA said it now expects Russian oil production to remains above 10 million b/d into the 2030s before a gradual decline to 9.4 million b/d in 2040. The new forecasts mark a sharp upward revision from the IEA’s latest long-term energy outlook, which in November 2017 predicted that Russian oil flow would peak around 2020 before slipping below 10 million b/d before 2030 and falling to 8.6 million b/d in 2040. Russia, which could agree to extend its existing oil output cooperation pact with OPEC by year-end, was pumping at record highs of about 11.36 million b/d in September, according to the energy ministry. Meanwhile, the IEA was more pessimistic on Venezuela’s longer-term oil future because of its ongoing political and economic turmoil which has almost halved its oil production since early 2016. Crude oil production decreased from 2.35 million b/d in January 2016 to 1.22 million b/d in September 2018, according to S&P Global Platts data. Dwindling oil revenue, mounting debt, and falling investment and output has seen the flight of oil producers and service companies, and inflation is estimated by the IMF to have reached 1 million percent in 2018. Under the IEA’s latest central scenario, oil production in Venezuela will bottom out in the mid-2020s before beginning a gradual recovery back up to 2.5 million b/d by 2040. Last year, the IEA forecast that Venezuela’s oil output would reach 2.9 million b/d by 2040, up from 2.1 million b/d in 2025. The IEA said the reversing current production declines hinge on boosting capital spending on infrastructure and maintenance of existing facilities. Key hurdles which could delay Venezuela’s eventual oil recovery include potential long-term damage to Venezuela’s production potential because of field neglect, a lack of capital, and expertise having deserted Venezuela in recent years. “There are few signs on the horizon of the macroeconomic or policy changes that would arrest the decline in Venezuelan output,” the IEA said.
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