石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据伦敦普氏能源资讯5月18日消息，挪威将2018年的天然气出口价格上调了11%，但已经下调了2019年的价格假设，这表明挪威今年将寻求向欧洲供应天然气。 鉴于欧洲将在明年启动一系列全球新项目，预计欧洲的液化天然气产量将大幅上升，因此，挪威有望充分利用今年天然气市场强劲反弹所带来的机遇。 根据本周公布的挪威修订预算，奥斯陆目前预计挪威天然气出口价格今年将平均达到1.80/立方米(16.89/MWh)，高于挪威议会去年年底批准的第一个2018年预算中的NOK1.62/cu m。 这一假设的上升是近几个月欧洲天然气市场价格走强的结果，受寒冷天气、市场基本面收紧以及油价上涨的影响，油价周四突破每桶80美元大关。 根据标准普尔全球普氏数据，新的假设仍然相对保守，相对于今年迄今为止的平均每日TTF价格为20.70/MWh，但远高于挪威明年的预期。 在修订后的预算中，该公司表示，向欧洲供应更高的液化天然气将影响挪威2019年的出口价格。 一些新的液化天然气供应项目将在2018年剩余时间和2019年(尤其是在美国和澳大利亚)上线，预计将导致液化天然气过剩。 欧洲经常充当过剩液化天然气货物的“最后市场”，因为它能够将过剩的液化天然气吸收到欧洲西北部的液态中心。 该公司表示:“预计明年欧洲天然气供应的增加将导致(挪威)天然气价格下降至略低于1.50/立方米(14.07/MWh)的水平。” “2020年，由于液化天然气的供应增加，天然气价格预计将再次下降，”该公司表示。 胡晶晶摘译自普氏能源资讯 原文如下 Norway has raised its assumption for gas export prices in 2018 by 11% but has slashed its price assumption for 2019, suggesting Norway will look to max out gas supplies to Europe this year. With the expectation that Europe will see a significant rise in LNG deliveries next year given the startup of a number of new projects globally, Norway could be seen to look to make the most of the opportunities offered by this year’s strong rally in the gas market. According to the revised Norwegian budget published this week, Oslo now expects Norwegian gas export prices to average NOK1.80/cu m (Eur16.89/MWh) this year, up from NOK1.62/cu m assumed in the first 2018 budget approved by Norway’s parliament towards the end of last year. The uplift in the assumption is a result of the price strength across European gas markets in recent months, buoyed by cold weather, tighter market fundamentals and the rising oil price which broke the $80/b mark on Thursday. The new assumption is still relatively conservative versus the average day-ahead TTF price so far this year of Eur20.70/MWh, according to S&P Global Platts data, but is well above what Norway expects for next year. In the revised budget, it said higher LNG supplies to Europe would impact Norway’s export price in 2019. A number of new LNG supply projects are due online over the remainder of 2018 and in 2019 — especially in the US and Australia — which is expected to lead to a surplus of LNG. Europe often acts as a “market of last resort” for excess LNG cargoes as it is able to absorb the surplus LNG into its liquid hubs in Northwest Europe. “Europe’s increased access to LNG next year is expected to contribute to a decline in [Norwegian] gas prices to just under NOK1.50/cu m (Eur14.07/MWh),” it said. “In 2020, gas prices are expected to go down again due to increased offer of LNG,” it said.
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