石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据委内瑞拉加拉加斯普氏能源资讯5月3日消息，委内瑞拉的原油产量已经在下降，可能会进一步下滑。 目前的石油产量约为140万桶，而石油部的“最坏情况”预计将在12月前进一步减少20万桶，至120万桶。 这将是两年内产出的急剧减半。 消息来源称，他并未看到任何短期解决委内瑞拉问题的方法，包括劳工动乱，高通胀，失败的设备，沉重的债务以及国家石油公司PDVSA的管理层在石油部长曼纽尔·奎维多的监督下进行的管理工作。 国际货币基金组织(imf)预计委内瑞拉今年的通胀率达到惊人的13865%，GDP预计将从2017年下降15%。 原油出口——该国主要的收入来源——已经大幅下滑，加剧了现金短缺，这使得PDVSA难以支持生产规模庞大的奥里诺科(Orinoco)石油储量，而10年前，这一储量预计将支撑该国的石油复苏。 这些储备包括额外的重质原油，需要注入较轻的原油或石脑油来提取。但委内瑞拉传统油田产量的下降，以及无力持续支付进口稀释剂，使得PDVSA无法提高奥里诺科的产量。 胡晶晶摘译自普氏能源资讯 原文如下 Venezuela’s already freefalling crude production may have a way further to tumble. Current oil output is around 1.4 million b/d, and the oil ministry’s “worst case scenario” projects a further 200,000 b/d decline by December to 1.2 million b/d, a ministry source told S&P Global Platts on condition of anonymity. That would be a precipitous halving of output in two years. “The downside risk is large,” the source said, adding that he does not see any short-term solution to Venezuela’s woes, which include labor unrest, hyperinflation, failing equipment, crushing debt and a brain drain among state oil company PDVSA’s management ranks following a purge overseen by oil minister Manuel Quevedo. The International Monetary Fund has pegged Venezuelan inflation this year at a staggering 13,865%, with GDP projected to contract by 15% from 2017. Crude exports — the country’s main source of revenue — have plunged, exacerbating a cash crunch that makes it difficult for PDVSA to support production of the vast Orinoco reserves that a decade ago were projected to underpin the country’s oil resurgence. Those reserves consist of extra heavy crude that require injection of lighter crude or naphtha to extract. But declining output from Venezuela’s conventional fields and an inability to consistently afford imported diluent prevent PDVSA from boosting Orinoco production.
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