石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据伦敦普氏能源资讯5月2日消息，最近几个月，能源供应的地缘政治风险影响了油价。随着全球石油市场在很大程度上重新平衡，这些风险变得更加严重。 中东和北非的爆发点是今年关注的焦点，但委内瑞拉的政治危机已使石油产量受到新的影响。 随着欧佩克(opec)削减全球石油库存的行动，爆发点有可能在今年引发新的价格波动，尤其是在全球产能过剩和经济复苏推动需求增长之际。 大多数伊朗核交易观察人士预计，美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)将重新对伊朗实施石油制裁。自2016年1月解除制裁以来，伊朗的石油产量已恢复了之前的大部分市场份额，每日增长100万桶，至每日400万桶左右。 石油市场继续对白宫、该协议的欧洲伙伴、或5月12日之前的德黑兰发出的任何新信号作出强烈反应，这是特朗普决定是否继续放弃制裁的最后期限。 美国的新一轮制裁可能会立即对欧佩克第三大产油国伊朗的原油出口造成影响。对美国退出该交易的预期，中国的上游投资已大幅放缓。 委内瑞拉的石油产量在过去两年里下降了约40%，从每日23.5万桶下降到现在的水平，因为油价下跌和经济疲软阻碍了投资。美国曾表示，如果它认为民主正在被削弱，它可能会实施进一步的制裁。 预计该国5月20日的选举将引发可能针对石油或精炼产品流动的潜在新制裁。 历史上，委内瑞拉石油的主要买家，尤其是在美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区，美国炼油商一直在分散供应，从新市场进口重型原油，因为委内瑞拉供应减少。 美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)的数据显示，今年1月，美国炼油厂从委内瑞拉进口了43.8万桶原油，其中5家墨西哥湾炼油厂占了92%。 胡晶晶摘译自普氏能源资讯 原文如下 Geopolitical risks to energy supplies have affected oil prices in recent months. With global oil markets now largely rebalanced these risks have become more acute. Flashpoints in the Middle East and North Africa have been the main focus of attention this year but Venezuela’s political crisis has taken a new dimension hitting oil output. As OPEC-led cuts slash the world’s oil stock overhang, flashpoints have the potential to cause fresh price volatility this year, particularly as global spare capacity thins and economic recovery stokes demand growth. Most Iran nuclear deal watchers expect US President Donald Trump to re-impose oil sanctions on Tehran. Iran’s oil output has regained most of its previous market share since sanctions were lifted in January 2016, growing 1 million b/d to hover near 4 million b/d. The oil market continues to react sharply to any new signals from the White House, the deal’s European partners, or Tehran ahead of May 12, the deadline for Trump to decide whether to continue waiving sanctions. Renewed US sanctions would likely have an immediate impact on crude exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-biggest producer. Upstream investment in the country has already slowed considerably on expectations of a US exit from the deal. Venezuelan output has dropped by around 40% over the last two years from 2.35 million b/d, as lower prices and a crippled economy prevent investment. The US has said that it may impose further sanctions if it believes democracy is being undermined there. The country’s May 20 elections are expected to be a trigger for potential new sanctions, which could target oil or refined product flows. Historically a major buyer of Venezuela’s oil, especially on the US Gulf Coast, US refiners have been diversifying their supplies, importing heavy crudes from new markets as Venezuelan supply dips. US refiners imported 438,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude in January, with five Gulf Coast refineries taking 92% of the total, Energy Information Administration data shows.
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