石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据RZNews.com网站2月23日休斯敦报道，根据英国石油公司（BP）最新一期能源展望报告，石油和天然气在2040年前将占到全球能源的一半以上。 BP最新能源展望报告强调，全球对石油的需求在到2040年前的大部分时间里将会增长并在2040年以后的几年里达到稳定水平。所有石油需求增长据称将来自新兴经济体。在展望的早期阶段，美国的致密油将驱动供应的增长。由于中东产油国采用一种不断增长市场份额的战略，欧佩克据称将从本世纪20年代后期接管石油供应增长。 根据BP的能源展望报告，运输部门将继续主导全球石油需求，占到总增长的一半以上。来自运输部门能源需求的大部分增长将来自非公路（主要是航空、海运和铁路）和卡车，小部分增长将来自汽车和摩托车。在2030年以后，石油需求主要增长源将是非燃烧使用，尤其是作为石化产品的原料。 根据BP这份报告，天然气需求在此期间预计将强劲增长，超过煤炭成为第二大能源来源。在2040年前，美国据称将占到全球天然气产量的近四分之一，全球液化天然气供应届时将增加一倍以上。 李峻 编译自 RZNews.com 原文如下： Oil, Gas Will Account for Over Half of World’s Energy by 2040 Oil and gas will account for over half of the world’s energy by 2040, according to BP plc’s latest Energy Outlook. The outlook highlights that demand for oil will grow over much of the period to 2040 before plateauing in later years. All the demand growth is said to come from emerging economies, with the growth in supply driven by US tight oil in the early part of the outlook. OPEC is said to take over from the late 2020s as Middle East producers adopt a strategy of growing market share. The transport sector will continue to dominate global oil demand, according to BP, accounting for more than half of the overall growth. Most of the growth in energy demand from transport comes from non-road (largely air, marine, and rail) and trucks, with small increases from cars and motorbikes. After 2030, the main source of growth in the demand for oil is from non-combusted uses, particularly as a feedstock for petrochemicals. Natural gas demand is anticipated to grow strongly over the period, according to the scenario, overtaking coal as the second largest source of energy. By 2040, the US is said to account for almost one quarter of global gas production, with global LNG supplies more than doubling.
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