石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社1月5日伦敦报道，由于主要得到布伦特期货原油价格上涨的支持，摩根士丹利银行的现货欧洲利润指标从10月中旬的每桶大约8美元下降到了每桶6.5美元，但远期利润率保持不变。 摩根士丹利银行在一份报告中说，展望未来，由于需求强劲、大量维修计划以及低库存，欧洲的炼油利润可能出现反弹。 摩根士丹利表示，欧洲石油需求在2017年1月至10月每天增加了大约14万桶，与过去10年的下降形成了鲜明对比，欧洲的石油需求预计将继续增长。 报告说，欧洲炼油产能在5月份可能每天有150万桶（11%）被关闭。中东地区今年年初的大修季节消耗了来自欧洲的进口商品。 阿姆斯特丹——鹿特丹——安特卫普的石油产品库存已收缩至它们5年平均水平，其中中间馏分油库存已低于这个平均水平。 如果需求在2018年第二季度前每天增加5万桶，而每天关闭1.5万至20万桶炼油产能，欧洲炼油厂的利用率届时可能达到94%，5月份将飙升至97%。 李峻 编译自 路透社 原文如下： Morgan Stanley: European refining margins set for rebound The bank’s spot European margin indicator fell to $6.50 a barrel from around $8 a barrel in mid-October, largely on the back of a rally in Brent futures, but forward margins held up. Looking forward, margins could rebound due to firm demand, a heavy maintenance schedule and low inventories, the bank said in a note. European oil demand grew around 140 Mbpd in Jan-Oct 2017, in sharp contrast to the declines of the last decade, and is expected to continue growing, the Morgan Stanley said. 1.5 MMbpd, or 11%, of European refining capacity could go offline in May. A heavy maintenance season early this year in the Middle East could eat into European imports from there. Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp oil product inventories have already contracted to their five-year average with middle distillate stocks already below that level. If demand is up 50 Mbpd year-on-year by 2Q 2018, and an incremental 15 Mbpd–200 Mbpd of capacity is offline, European refinery utilization could reach over 94%, with a spike towards 97% in May.
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