石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社伦敦11月6日消息，虽然全球正在迎来电动汽车革命时代，但是壳牌公司正押注沥青和塑料需求的日益增长，以维持未来几十年其已有百年历史的炼油业务。
将原油转化成为从汽油到工业化学品一系列产品的炼油业务长期以来一直受到一些因素的影响，包括利润的波动、高成本、安全问题和污染，近来还受到了石油需求峰值预测的影响。
但是自2014年油价开始崩溃导致石油行业持续低迷以来，炼油和贸易、销售以及化工等下游业务已经被证实了重要性，占据了壳牌利润的大部分。
近年来壳牌公司已经通过出售一些工厂和升级改造其它工厂的方式对下游业务进行了整合，以应对油价的波动和需求的转变，当前壳牌下游业务实现的投资回报率达到两位数的水平。
壳牌公司炼油业务负责人Lori Ryerkerk表示：“未来几十年，炼油业务将继续是我们业务组合的一部分。”
壳牌也许是石油行业最为激进的预测者，该公司预测受电动汽车的快速发展和传统发动机变得更加高效的影响，全球汽油需求将在2030年代达到峰值。
但是壳牌表示，全球经济尤其是亚洲经济的持续增长意味着其它成品油和石化产品消费或将增长。
Ryerkerk表示，例如，当前还没有修建道路所需沥青的具有经济可行性的替代物，也没有用于汽车和玩具所需塑料的聚合物和化学品的具有经济可行性的替代物。
他表示：“虽然我们产品的需求峰值将到来，但是在未来几十年是不可能到来”
壳牌公司化工业务负责人Graham van’t Hoff表示，公司计划在下一个十年的中期前将化工业务的规模扩大一倍，包括位于路易斯安娜州和宾夕法尼亚州的一些受益于廉价页岩气的新建工厂将陆续投产。
张春晓摘译自 路透社 原文如下： Shell looks beyond road fuels to secure future of refining
While the world braces for the electric-vehicle revolution, Royal Dutch Shell is betting on growing appetite for asphalt and plastics to sustain its century-old oil refining business for the coming decades. Converting crude oil into products ranging from gasoline to industrial chemicals has long faced obstacles due to volatile profits, high costs, safety issues and pollution and more recently, forecasts of peaking demand for oil. But refining, together with trading, marketing and chemicals—known together as downstream—has proved its importance during the oil industry’s downturn since 2014, providing the bulk of Shell’s profits as the price of crude collapsed. Shell has in recent years transformed its downstream business by selling some plants and upgrading others to have them better resist oil price fluctuations and shifts in demand, delivering double-digit returns on capital employed. “Refining will continue to be part of our portfolio for decades to come,” said Shell’s head of manufacturing Lori Ryerkerk, who is in charge of refining. Shell is perhaps the most aggressive in its sector in forecasting that the demand for gasoline could reach an apex by the 2030s as drivers shift to electric vehicles and traditional engines become more efficient. But still, Shell says, the continued expansion of the world’s economy, particularly in Asia, means consumption of other refined oil products and petrochemicals is likely to grow. For instance, there are no economically viable substitutes for asphalt, needed to build roads, or for the polymers and chemicals used to produce plastics for cars, toys and clothes, Ryerkerk said. “While the peak demand for our products will come, it won’t come in decades. ” The Anglo-Dutch company plans to double the size of its chemicals business by the middle of the next decade with several new plants including in Louisiana and Pennsylvania that benefit from access to cheap shale gas, said Shell’s head of chemicals, Graham van’t Hoff.
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