石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据道琼斯10月24日消息，渣打银行大宗商品研究主管Paul Horsnell称，美国页岩油生产商最近几周减少了钻探活动，主要是因为包括不可持续发展的低油价在内的一些因素。尽管钻井数量下降，但美国能源情报署现预计美国生产商的日产量将提高至123万桶，较7月预期增加24万桶。一些分析师则不同意EIA的预测。Horsnell在最新研究报告中指出：“我们认为页岩油活动减少说明生产商成本上升，良好地质区域外的开发业务收支平衡点提高，且初始油井产出能力下降。渣打认为，外界过于看好页岩油行业在减少钻井的情况下加快增长的能力。” 张春晓 摘译自 道琼斯 原文如下： DJ US Oil Output May Fall Short of Official Forecasts In recent weeks US shale oil producers have been mothballing oil rigs because of factors including “unsustainably low prices,” says Paul Horsnell, the head of commodity research at Standard Chartered. Despite the declining rig count, the Energy Information Administration currently foresees US producers ramping up output to 1.23M barrels per day–that’s up 0.24M barrels per day from its July forecast. Some analysts disagree with the agency’s outlook. “We think the fall in shale oil activity is an indication of rising costs, higher break-evens outside of geological sweet-spots [and] falling initial well productivity,” says Horsnell in a recent research note. “We think the optimism on the ability of the industry to create faster growth with less drilling is overdone.”
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