石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据油气在线休斯敦7月19日消息，ESAI能源公司预测，很快将投用的管输能力将加重美国墨西哥湾沿岸（USGC）的轻质原油供应过剩局面，这将抑制油价和限制出口能力。 据ESAI能源公司北美观察称，今年底前二叠纪盆地和USGC之间的73万桶/天的新建管输能力将投用，2019年前二叠纪盆地至Corpus Christi的约84万桶/天的新建管输能力将投用。 ESAI预计二叠纪盆地今年的轻质油产量将增加46万桶/天，2018年将增加34万桶/天。 ESAI能源分析师Elisabeth Murphy表示：“尽管我们预测明年USGC的轻质原油供应过剩将升至200万桶/天，但实际影响还不清楚。因为油价的下跌反过来将影响页岩油产量的增速。” ESAI指出，USGC炼油厂提高加工量的能力有限。 出口将增长，但是增长速度将取决于码头和装载能力，因为原油出口将与产品出口争夺有限的出口能力。 ESAI表示，另一个出口限制是国外市场吸收美国过剩的轻质原油的能力。 庞晓华 摘译自 油气在线 原文如下： ESAI: New pipelines to feed USGC surplus Pipeline capacity due online soon will aggravate a surplus of light crude oil on the US Gulf Coast (USGC), suppressing prices and straining export capacity, predicts ESAI Energy LLC. According to the firm’s North America Watch, 730,000 b/d of new pipeline capacity will have come online between the Permian basin and the USGC by yearend. And by 2019, planned capacity of about 840,000 b/d will be online to carry Permian oil to Corpus Christi. ESAI expects Permian basin production of light oil to increase by 460,000 b/d this year and by 340,000 b/d in 2018. “Although we see that the USGC surplus could rise to 2 million b/d next year, its disposition is unclear,” said Elisabeth Murphy, an ESAI Energy analyst. “Lower prices will adversely impact the rate of growth coming from shale production.” The ability of USGC refiners to increase runs has limits, ESAI notes. Exports will rise, but the rate will depend on availability of dock and loading space as crude exports compete with product exports. Another export constraint is the ability of foreign demand for light crude to absorb the US surplus, the firm says.
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