石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯7月7日莫斯科报道，尽管俄罗斯是欧佩克/非欧佩克减产联盟中的一个主要成员，但俄罗斯的石油生产商面临巨大的不确定性，即参与减产是否会继续盈利以及是否会向他们需要继续减产提供动力。低于预期的油价以及比预期坚挺的卢布加上季节因素以及春季钻井利润增加很有可能会导致今年年底的产量增加，这可能导致俄罗斯整体履行减产协议规定业务的水平下降。5月份，欧佩克/非欧佩克减产协议被延长到了明年3月底。 根据来自俄罗斯能源部的统计数据，俄罗斯在4月底实现了把原油日产量减少30万桶的目标并在5月和6月保持在高于100%的减产水平。 到目前为止，减产对俄罗斯石油生产商的财务运营没有产生任何重大的影响，因为他们主要是在减少利润较低油井的产量以及增加利润更高油田的产量。 然而，由于季节性因素，俄罗斯通常在年初生产较少的原油产量以及在年底前逐步增加原油产量。因此，对于俄罗斯石油生产商能否在今年晚些时候履行其减产义务的问题仍存在疑问。 李峻 编译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： Analysis: Russian oil producers may abandon restraint if prices stay low Despite Russia being a leading member of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut coalition, its producers face significant uncertainty as to whether participation will continue to be profitable and provide the impetus they need to keep their crude output restrained.
Lower-than-expected oil prices and a stronger-than-expected ruble, coupled with seasonal factors and a hike in drilling rates in spring, are posing a significant likelihood of output increases toward the end of the year, which could lead to a lower compliance level by Russia overall with its obligations under the production cut deal that was extended in May to the end of March 2018.
Russia achieved its target of reducing crude output by 300,000 b/d in late April, and maintained compliance at slightly above 100% in May and June, according to data from the energy ministry. So far, the production cut has had no major impact on oil producers’ financial operations as they have mainly been reducing output from less profitable wells and increasing output from more profitable reservoirs. Due to seasonal factors, however, Russia usually produces less crude at the start of the year and gradually increases production toward the end of the year.
Therefore, questions remain as to whether oil producers will be able to fulfill their cut obligations later in the year.
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