石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据道琼斯6月23日消息，当前全球生产、装载和销售的原油过多，2020年前油市将维持这种局面。麦格理银行称，欧佩克可能对此无能为力。这是麦格理银行石油分析师Vikas Dwivedi的最新看法，这位分析师已经将2018年和2019年原油目标价下调逾10%。这意味着2018年布伦特原油平均价格将低于每桶50美元，不过Dwivedi预计长远来看油价将升至每桶65美元。需求不是问题，但供应是个问题，因为致密油生产率提高，页岩油前景看好，全球石油公司实行盈亏平衡所需的油价水平下降。
唐绍红 摘译自 道琼斯
原文如下：
OPEC Is Seen as Rather Powerless
{Dow Jones]–There is too much crude oil being produced, loaded, and marketed around the world, and that will be the case until 2020. And there is likely nothing OPEC can do about it, says Macquarie Bank. That is the latest view of Macquarie oil analyst Vikas Dwivedi, who has cut his oil price target by more than 10% in 2018 and 2019. This means Brent should average under $50/barrel in 2018, though Dwivedi expects long term it will move up to $65/barrel. Demand isn’t a problem, but supply is–with productivity gains in tight oil, more prospecting in shale oil and falling break-evens globally.
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