石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据Offshore网站4月27日巴黎报道，根据国际能源署（IEA）的最新研究报告，由于石油公司继续削减支出以及获批准的常规石油项目处于过去70多年来的最低水平，去年全球石油发现数跌到了创纪录的低位。 与过去15年平均每年90亿桶相比，去年全球石油发现数下降到了24亿桶。其间，由于收到最后投资决定的项目数减少到了20世纪40年代以来的最低水平，去年获批准开发的常规资源量下降到了47亿桶，比2015年减少了30%。 常规石油行业油气活动的大幅放缓是低油价导致的投资支出减少的结果。 常规石油行业的下滑与美国页岩产业的复苏形成了鲜明的对比。在生产成本自2014年以来减少50%的支持下，美国页岩产业的投资大幅回升以及产量不断上升。美国页岩产量的增长已成为平衡常规石油行业低活动的一个基本因素。 到目前为止，6900万桶/天的常规石油产量占到8500万桶/天的全球石油总产量的最大份额。另外，650万桶/天的液体产量来自美国页岩远景区，而剩余部分由其它天然气液体和非常规石油资源组成，例如油砂和重油。 由于全球需求在今后的5年里预计每年将日增120万桶，因此IEA反复警告说，一段时间的石油投资大幅削减可能导致今后供应紧缩。今年全球的勘探支出预计将再次连续第3年下降到不到2014年水平的一半，这将导致另外低发现的一年。今年迄今为止新批准项目的水平仍然低迷。 IEA署长法提赫•比罗尔说，石油市场未来的关键问题是美国的页岩供应的激增多长时间能够弥补石油行业在世界其它地方的缓慢增长。 IEA说，美国的页岩产业已把其成本降低到了这样的一个程度：在许多情况下，它现在比常规项目更有竞争力。例如，德州二叠纪盆地平均盈亏平衡价格现在是每桶40-45美元。按目前的价格，来自美国页岩远景区的液体产量在2022年前预计将日增230万桶。如果油价进一步上升，产量将增加更多。 海上石油行业——占到全球近三分之一的原油产量和未来全球供应的一个至关重要组成部分——受到了该行业放缓的特别沉重打击。与2000年和2015年之间的平均40%多相比，2016年只有13%被批准的常规资源是海上资源。 例如，在北海，去年石油投资下降到了不到250亿美元，是2014年水平的大约一半。 李峻 编译自 Offshore 原文如下： Report: Oil discoveries fell to historic lows in 2016 PARIS – Global oil discoveries fell to a record low in 2016 as companies continued to cut spending and conventional oil projects sanctioned were at the lowest level in more than 70 years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which warned that both trends could continue this year.
Oil discoveries declined to 2.4 Bbbl in 2016, compared with an average of 9 Bbbl per year over the past 15 years. Meanwhile, the volume of conventional resources sanctioned for development last year fell to 4.7 Bbbl, 30% lower than the previous year as the number of projects that received a final investment decision dropped to the lowest level since the 1940s.
This sharp slowdown in activity in the conventional oil sector was the result of reduced investment spending driven by low oil prices.
The slump in the conventional oil sector contrasts with the resilience of the US shale industry. There, investment rebounded sharply and output rose, on the back of production costs being reduced by 50% since 2014. This growth in US shale production has become a fundamental factor in balancing low activity in the conventional oil industry. Conventional oil production of 69 MMbbl/d represents by far the largest share of global oil output of 85 MMbbl/d. In addition, 6.5 MMbbl/d come from liquids production from the US shale plays, and the rest is made up of other natural gas liquids and unconventional oil sources such as oil sands and heavy oil.
With global demand expected to grow by 1.2 MMbbl/d a year in the next five years, the IEA has repeatedly warned that an extended period of sharply lower oil investment could lead to a tightening in supplies. Exploration spending is expected to fall again in 2017 for the third year in a row to less than half 2014 levels, resulting in another year of low discoveries. The level of new sanctioned projects so far in 2017 remains depressed.
“The key question for the future of the oil market is for how long can a surge in US shale supplies make up for the slow pace of growth elsewhere in the oil sector.” said Dr. Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director.
The US shale industry has lowered its costs to such an extent that in many cases it is now more competitive than conventional projects, the IEA said. The average breakeven price in the Permian basin in Texas, for example, is now at $40-45/bbl. Liquids production from US shale plays is expected to expand by 2.3 MMbbl/d by 2022 at current prices, and expand even more if prices rise further. The offshore sector, which accounts for almost a third of crude oil production and is a crucial component of future global supplies, has been particularly hard hit by the industry’s slowdown. In 2016, only 13% of all conventional resources sanctioned were offshore, compared with more than 40% on average between 2000 and 2015.
In the North Sea, for instance, oil investments fell to less than $25 billion in 2016, about half the level of 2014.
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