石油圈低arb产量及周转率为第二季度亚洲石脑油联合企业提供支撑 中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯新加坡3月7日消息 最近几周，亚洲石脑油联合企业出现温和复苏。随着市场迎来典型的第二季度淡季，预计随着炼油业务好转，石脑油进入亚洲的套利交易量将下降且这一趋势将持续。 2019年初，由于重质全系列石脑油行业面临压力，加之北亚地区第二季度的石蜡石脑油需求预计将减少约120万吨，石脑油利润率出现了一定范围的波动。 根据普氏数据，截至2月8日的一周，基准CFR日本石脑油现货与ICE布伦特原油期货的价差平均为38.36美元/吨，但自那以来价差已趋稳定，本周平均为45.57美元/吨。 CFR日本石脑油对ICE布伦特原油期货的物理裂缝，在周四格林威治时间03:00时被确定为每桶50.675美元以上。 据市场消息人士称，如果套利资金流入继续放缓，预期升势将持续。 预计4月将有约140 – 150万吨石脑油套利货物抵达亚洲海岸，较3月的160 – 190万吨大幅下降。一位市场人士表示，这是由于西部地区天气状况不佳造成。 对较低套利石脑油产量的预期与欧洲汽油联合企业的走强相吻合，而该地区的石脑油发现在汽油池中存有混合需求。 而日本最大炼油商JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy的原油蒸馏日产量为24.4万桶，计划在3月中旬至4月中旬停产。 吴慧丹 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： Lower arb volumes, turnarounds lend support to Q2 Asian naphtha complex The Asian naphtha complex saw a modest recovery in recent weeks, a development that is expected to hold as the market embraces the typical second quarter lull season on expectations of lower arbitrage volumes of naphtha into Asia amid refinery turnarounds. Naphtha margins were rangebound at the start of 2019 due to the pressure that the heavy full range naphtha sector was under, along with an expectation of about 1.2 million mt of lost paraffinic naphtha requirement in the second quarter from the turnaround season in North Asia. In the week ended February 8, the benchmark CFR Japan naphtha physical crack spread against ICE Brent crude futures averaged $38.36/mt but the crack spread has since firmed and averaged $45.57/mt this week, based on Platts data. CFR Japan naphtha physical cracks against ICE Brent crude futures was pegged at a notional level of plus $50.675/mt at 0300 GMT Thursday. The upswing is expected to be sustained, should the arbitrage inflows remain slow, market sources said. Around 1.4-1.5 million mt of naphtha arbitrage cargoes are expected to reach Asian shores in April, which is a sharp fall from the 1.6-1.9 million in March. This is due to the poor weather conditions in the West, one market source said. The expectations of lower arbitrage naphtha volumes have coincided with a stronger European gasoline complex, and the naphtha in that region found demand for blending needs in the gasoline pool. 244,000 b/d of crude distillation capacity at Japan’s largest refiner JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy is slated to go offline between mid-March to mid-April.
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