石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据世界石油1月21日消息 随着天然气需求增长速度快于任何其他化石燃料，液化天然气期货可能最终会大幅上涨。 在2017年初，衍生产品约占全球液化天然气产量的2%，因为全球范围内的一系列合同都难以获得牵引力。但到去年年底，成交量已增长至近23%，这主要得益于基于普氏能源的Japan-Korea Marker（JKM）现货价格评估而迅速发展的洲际外汇合约。 尽管产量与既定的全球能源基准（如布伦特原油）相差甚远，布伦特原油的贸易量使全球石油产量相形见绌，但液化天然气衍生产品的加速增长说明了市场的成熟程度，从美国到澳大利亚供应量的激增，说明正在吸引更多的市场参与者，并从传统的定价模式逐渐开始发生转变。 经纪公司Tullett Prebon的液化天然气亚洲业务主管Tobias Davis说：“与JKM相关的短期实物交易更多，新的交易参与者活跃在市场中，这就创造了更多的流动性，反过来，在互换交易中也会建立更多的信心，并将其作为一种可行的对冲工具。” 目前至少有六个液化天然气衍生合同，来自ICE美国海湾沿岸期货和迪拜科威特-印度新加坡交易所。12月份交易的合同超过17000份，比2017年1月增加了10倍。其次，最活跃的是CME集团的期货合约，也是基于普氏能源的JKM评估。该公司去年11月的月交易量达到峰值，为3335份合同。 对液化天然气基准的需求一直备受争议。传统上，当石油在发电和生产中被更普遍地使用时，它几乎只相对于原油估价，并根据长期合同进行买卖。该系统的一个优点是，石油具有流动性和成熟的期货市场，使市场参与者能够看到并有信心对冲。 但石油和天然气并没有齐步走，买家越来越不愿意与原油市场挂钩。全球供应的扩大，尤其是页岩气储量的开发，使美国成为一个主要的天然气出口国，并刺激转向更多的现货交易。 根据国际液化天然气进口商集团的数据，2017年约有27%的液化天然气是通过现货或短期交易出售的，高于2003年的12%。 这只是增加了对可靠的价格基准和流动性期货市场进行对冲的需求。区域天然气基准，如路易斯安那州的Henry Hub、英国的National Balancing Point或荷兰Title Transfer Facility，只反映了当地的基本面，因此可能不是全球液化天然气贸易的理想替代品，因为全球液化天然气贸易的绝大部分销售都在亚洲。 ENGIE液化天然气全球负责人Gordon D Waters周五在电话中说：“JKM更可信、更准确，而合同市场正帮助其对价格变动作出更积极的反应，最有可能在未来5年内，JKM合同可能达到NBP或TTF的水平。2018年，NBP和TTF的合同量平均每天约为37000份。 但这还有很长的路要走。ICE JKM仍然比其他全球石油和天然气基准要小得多。据彭博社估计，在2018年底，交易所持仓合约约占20亿美元，而美国天然气为360亿美元，布伦特原油则超过1000亿美元。 王磊 摘译自 世界石油 原文如下： Trading of LNG derivatives to benefit industry With natural gas demand growing faster than for any other fossil fuel, LNG futures may be finally taking off. Derivatives represented about 2% of global LNG production at the beginning of 2017 as an array of contracts around the world struggled to gain traction. But by the end of last year, volumes had grown to almost 23%, led by a burgeoning Intercontinental Exchange contract based on S&P Global Platts’ Japan-Korea Marker spot price assessments. While volumes are a long way off established global energy benchmarks such as Brent crude — where trade dwarfs worldwide oil production many times over — the accelerating growth in LNG derivatives illustrates how the market is maturing. An explosion in supply, from the U.S. to Australia, is bringing more market participants and a shift away from traditional pricing. “There’s more short-term physical trading indexed to JKM and new counterparties active in the market,” said Tobias Davis, head of LNG–Asia at brokerage Tullett Prebon. “This creates more liquidity and in turn, builds more confidence in trading the swap and using it as a viable hedging tool.” There are now at least six derivative contracts for LNG, ranging from U.S. Gulf Coast futures on ICE to Dubai-Kuwait-India on Singapore Exchange. More than 17,000 contracts traded in December, a 10-fold increase from January 2017. The next most active is CME Group’s futures contract, also based on S&P Global Platts’ JKM assessment. Its monthly volume peaked in November last year at 3,335 contracts. The need for a liquid LNG benchmark has been the subject of much debate. Traditionally, when oil was used more commonly in power generation and production, it was almost exclusively valued relative to crude oil and brought and sold under long-term contracts. One advantage of that system is that oil has a liquid and established futures market that gives market participants visibility and the confidence to hedge. But oil and gas don’t move in lockstep and buyers have become increasingly reluctant to be tied to crude markets. The expansion in global supply, most notably with the development of shale reserves that transformed the U.S. into a major natural gas exporter, has stimulated a shift to more spot trading. About 27% of LNG was sold under spot- or short-term deals in 2017, up from 12% in 2003, according to the International Group of LNG Importers. That just increased the need for a reliable price benchmark and liquid futures market for hedging. Regional gas benchmarks such as Louisiana’s Henry Hub, the U.K.’s National Balancing Point or Dutch Title Transfer Facility reflect local fundamentals and therefore may not be ideal proxies for the global LNG trade, where the vast majority of sales are in Asia. JKM “is much more trusted, much more accurate, and the paper market is helping make it be more responsive to price movements,” Gordon D Waters, the global head of LNG at ENGIE, said by phone on Friday. JKM contracts could reach the level of NBP or TTF “most likely within the next 5 years.” NBP and TTF volumes both averaged about 37,000 contracts a day in 2018. There’s still a long way to go. ICE JKM is still much smaller than other global oil and gas benchmarks. Exchange open interest accounted for about $2 billion at the end of 2018, compared with $36 billion for U.S. natural gas and more than $100 billion for Brent oil, according to Bloomberg estimates.
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