石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯休斯顿消息，斯伦贝谢高管上周五表示，2019年美国在岸勘探与生产的资本投资可能较去年持平，略有下降，另外，北美以外的国际活动在未来几个月内将缓慢回升。 全球最大的油田服务公司首席执行官Paal Kibsgaard在第四季度的业绩电话会议上表示，美国的陆上活动也应该缓慢启动，且在下半年会逐渐回升。 Kibsgaard表示：“在这种情况下，勘探与生产的运营商很可能会逐渐降低钻井活动，转而集中精力减少大量钻出的未完工油井。” Kibsgaard称，假设WTI的石油价格“合理”恢复到2018年的平均水平，即至少每桶60美元，那么运营商将重点关注数千口已经钻探但未完成的油井（DUCs）中的一些，仍将推动美国的生产增长。但在某种程度上，实质上大幅低于2018年的每天190万桶。 上周五，纽约商品交易所2月交割的WTI的收盘价为每桶53.8美元。 美国能源信息署的数据显示，去年11月份，美国共有8723个DUCs，其中46%位于二叠纪盆地。二叠纪DUCs速度相对较快，从2016年8月的1127个增长到2018年11月的4039个。 北美以外地区的“稳定”收入增长 Kibsgaard称，另一方面，斯伦贝谢预测，2019年北美以外市场的收入将稳定增长。预计今年上半年中个位数将出现增长，这表明运营商打算在这些领域投入更多资金。 他补充说，鉴于2018年第四季度全球油价下跌，这些公司今年开始时的支出可能将保持在“保守”水平，而且仍将比去年低每桶10至20美元。伦敦ICE欧洲期货交易所布伦特原油上周五收于每桶62.73美元。 随着新的投资计划在拉美、亚洲和非洲启动，北海、俄罗斯和中东的名义活动将有更大的增长，国际活动将由这些地区牵头。 Kibsgaard表示：“挪威、英国、巴西和尼日利亚等主要产油国的生产基地日益老化，其潜在的下降趋势正被新的项目初创企业以及更多的勘探活动所抵消。” 他表示：“在经历了四年的投资不足和专注于最大限度地扩大短期现金流之后，国有石油公司和独立企业开始认识到，仅仅为了保持目前的产量水平，就需要对其资源基础进行投资。 墨西哥、安哥拉和印度尼西亚的新投资也很明显，这些国家的产量几年来一直在下降。 斯伦贝谢在2019年的收入为328亿美元, 其中36% 来自北美, 税前营业收入为42亿美元。 基本要素应得到改善 Kibsgaard表示，随着欧佩克和俄罗斯全面减产，北美活动减少导致生产增长放缓，伊朗出口合同的豁免到期，不再延续，油价和供需基本面将在2019年得到改善。 斯伦贝谢警告称，如果未能得到俄罗斯当局的监管批准，它可能终止收购Eurasia Drilling股份的努力，自2017年中以来，该公司一直在关注这一举措。 Kibsgaard说：“我们的计划是，在未来几周里，我们将进行最后一次尝试和接触，如果我们看不到获得所需批准的明确途径，我们很可能会撤回申请。” 他补充说，相反，斯伦贝谢将寻求与俄罗斯最大的钻井公司建立“伙伴关系的替代渠道”，以进一步参与该国的常规陆上钻探市场。 Kibsgaard表示，尽管油价波动，预计2019年初市场活动放缓，但斯伦贝谢的高端产品线和先进技术或多或少已经售罄。 他说，该公司2019年的油田设备资本支出为15亿至17亿美元，其中很大一部分将用于确保有足够的能力承担更多需要这些设备的工作。 詹晓晶摘自普氏能源资讯 原文如下： US E&P capex likely to remain flat to down on year in 2019: Schlumberger Houston — US onshore E&P capital investments in 2019 are likely to be flat to slightly down from last year, with international activity outside North America picking up slowly over the next several months, Schlumberger’s top executive said Friday. Paal Kibsgaard, CEO of the world’s largest oilfield service company, said during a fourth-quarter earnings call that US land activity should also start slowly but pick up gradually in the second half. “In this scenario, it is likely that the E&P operators would gradually lower drilling activity and instead focus on drawing down the large inventory of drilled uncompleted wells,” Kibsgaard said. Assuming WTI oil prices “reasonably” recover to average roughly 2018 levels of at least $60/b, operator focus on some of the thousands of drilled but unproduced wells (DUCs) would still drive US production growth, but at a rate “substantially” lower than the 1.9 million b/d in 2018, Kibsgaard said. On Friday, NYMEX WTI for February closed at $53.80/b. In November, there were 8,723 DUCs in the US, 46% of which were in the Permian Basin, US Energy Information Administration data showed. Permian DUCs have grown relatively rapidly, from 1,127 in August 2016 to 4,039 in November 2018. ‘SOLID’ REVENUE GROWTH OUTSIDE NORTH AMERICA On the other hand, Schlumberger’s projected “solid” year-over-year revenue growth in 2019 from markets outside North America. Increases are expected in mid-single digits during the first half of the year, signaling operators’ intentions to spend more money in those arenas, Kibsgaard said. Those companies will probably start the year at “conservative” spending levels in view of global oil prices that fell in Q4 2018 and remain $10-$20/b lower than last year, he added. ICE Brent closed Friday at $62.73/b. Activity pickups internationally will be led by Latin America, Asia and Africa as new investment programs are kicked-off in those regions, with more nominal activity growth in the North Sea, Russia and the Middle East. “The underlying decline from the aging production base in key oil producing countries like Norway, the UK, Brazil and Nigeria are being offset by new project startups, as well as more exploration activity,” Kibsgaard said. “After four years of under-investments and a focus on maximizing short-term cash flows, national oil companies and independents are starting to see the need to invest in their resource base simply to keep production at current levels,” he said. Fresh investment is also evident in Mexico, Angola and Indonesia, where production has been in decline for several years. Schlumberger earned $32.8 billion in revenues in 2019, 36% coming from North America, with pretax operating income of $4.2 billion. FUNDAMENTALS SHOULD IMPROVE Both oil prices and supply-demand fundamentals should improve in 2019 as the OPEC-Russia production cuts take full effect, lower North American activity results in lower production growth, and waivers from Iran export contracts expire and aren’t renewed, Kibsgaard said. Schlumberger warned it could end efforts to purchase a stake in Eurasia Drilling, a move it has eyed since mid-2017, if it fails to receive regulatory approvals from Russian authorities. “Our plan is that we’re going to make one final attempt and approach over the coming weeks; and if we see no clear path to obtaining the needed approvals, we are likely going to withdraw our application,” Kibsgaard said. Instead, Schlumberger will seek “alternative avenues in partnership” with Russia’s top drilling company to further its participation in the conventional land drilling market in that country, he added. Despite volatile oil prices and expected slower activity in early 2019, Schlumberger is “more or less sold out” of its high-end product lines and advanced technologies, Kibsgaard said. A large part of the company’s 2019 field equipment capex of $1.5 billion-$1.7 billion will focus on making sure it has enough capacity to take on more work requiring that equipment, he said.
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