石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据世界石油斯塔万格消息，挪威石油局预测显示，挪威大陆架（NCS）在2019年石油和天然气产量略有下降之后，从2020年到2023年，石油和天然气产量将会增加，然后，整个生产将接近2004年这一创纪录的年份。 挪威石油管理局(NPD)总干事本特·尼兰德表示：“挪威大陆架上的活动水平很高，未来几年的产量预测前景看好，并为公司和挪威社会的巨额收入奠定了基础，人们对勘探石油和天然气有着浓厚的兴趣。” 去年的勘探活动明显高于前两年，勘探井数急剧增加，颁发了87份新的生产许可证，这是一个新的记录。 去年共有53口勘探井被开采，而2017年为36口。根据石油公司的计划显示，在2019年，可能会保持在与2018年相同的高水平。目前有11项发现，初步资源估计为8200万立方米石油当量，这比前三年的每一年都要高。 尼兰德表示：“高水平的勘探活动证明挪威的大陆架很有吸引力，这是个好消息！但是，这一水平的资源增长不足以在2025年后保持高水平的生产。因此，更有利可图的资源必须得到证明，而且时间比较紧迫。” 她指出，近三分之二的未发现的资源在巴伦支海。从长远来看，这一领域对保持高产量十分重要。 挪威是欧洲重要的长期天然气供应国。天然气可在三个方面促进更可持续的发展：提供合理和稳定的能源，取代煤炭的使用以及支持可再生能源的生产。 尼兰德称：“在今后一段时间内，将有更多的天然气管道和其他基础设施可供使用，这意味着寻找天然气更有吸引力，而且该行业利用这一机会也很重要。” 去年年底，挪威大陆架上有83个产区。其中Aasta Hansteen于2018年投产，随着该项目的启动，Polarled管道开始运行，将天然气输送到Møre og Romsdal的Nyhamna加工设施。Aasta Hansteen和Polarled管道在挪威海北部提供了新的基础设施，从而为这部分大陆架开辟了新的机会。 这些公司在去年提交了3个新项目的开发和运营计划，同时有9个计划获得批准。其中7项计划涉及与现有基础设施有关的实地发展。 “对基础设施的良好利用和各生产许可证之间的合作意味着降低开发成本，并使以有利可图的方式开发中小型发现成为可能，这一点随着大陆架的成熟而变得越来越重要。” 储备是已通过发展计划的资源。去年，挪威石油储备的增长首次超过了挪威石油局雄心勃勃的2013-2023年期间石油储备增长曲线。这一非常积极的事态发展的原因是，正在开发更多的油田，并正在开展更多的良好工作，以改善作业油田的恢复情况。 2018年挪威大陆架上的投资与前一年大致持平，但几项正在Johan Sverdrup和Johan Castberg油田进行的开发项目及其他一些项目将有助于2019年的大幅增长。 近年来, 该行业在成本控制和效率方面做得很好，这使得勘探、开发和运营成本大幅下降，这对于确保挪威大陆架具有竞争力和良好的资源管理非常重要。 尼兰德表示：“已核准的新项目也反映出较低的费用水平，这些项目对公司和挪威社会都是有利可图的，总体情况是，新的开发项目将以比目前水平低得多的油价盈利。” 詹晓晶摘自世界石油 原文如下： The NCS is barely halfway through its oil and gas story, according to NPD The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s forecasts show that, after a minor decline in 2019, oil and gas production will increase from 2020 and up to 2023. Overall production will then approach the record year of 2004. “The activity level on the Norwegian Shelf is high. Production forecasts for the next few years are promising and lay a foundation for substantial revenues, both for the companies and the Norwegian society. There is considerable interest in exploring for oil and gas,” says NPD Director General Bente Nyland. Exploration activity was considerably higher last year than in the two previous years. The number of exploration wells has increased dramatically, and 87 new production licenses were awarded, which is a new record. A total of 53 exploration wells were spudded last year, compared with 36 in 2017. The companies’ plans show that this number will probably remain at the same high level in 2019. Eleven discoveries were made, with a preliminary resource estimate of 82 MMsm3 of recoverable oil equivalents. This is higher than each of the three previous years. “The high level of exploration activity proves that the Norwegian Shelf is attractive. That is good news! However, resource growth at this level is not sufficient to maintain a high level of production after 2025. Therefore, more profitable resources must be proven, and the clock is ticking,” says Nyland. She notes that nearly two-thirds of the undiscovered resources are in the Barents Sea. This area will be important for maintaining high production over the longer term. Norway is an important long-term supplier of gas to Europe. Gas can contribute to more sustainable development in three ways: by providing reasonable and stable access to energy, by displacing use of coal and by supporting renewable energy production. “In the time ahead, there will be more available capacity in pipelines and other infrastructure for gas. This means that it is more attractive to explore for gas, and it is important that the industry exploits this opportunity,” says Nyland. At year-end, there were 83 producing fields on the Norwegian Shelf. One of these – Aasta Hansteen – came on stream in 2018. Simultaneously with start-up of Aasta Hansteen, the Polarled pipeline commenced operation to route gas in to the process facility at Nyhamna in Møre og Romsdal county. Aasta Hansteen and Polarled provide new infrastructure in the northern part of the Norwegian Sea, thus opening up new opportunities in this part of the Shelf. The companies submitted plans for development and operation (PDOs) for three new projects last year, while nine plans were approved. Seven of the plans relate to field developments linked to existing infrastructure. “Good exploitation of infrastructure and cooperation across production licenses mean lower development costs and make it possible to develop small and medium-sized discoveries in a way that is profitable. This is becoming increasingly important as the Shelf matures.” Reserves are resources for which development plans have been adopted. Last year, for the first time, reserve growth for oil exceeded the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s ambitious curve for reserve growth for the period 2013 – 2023. The reasons for this very positive development are that more fields are being developed and more good work is being done to improve recovery on fields in operation. Investments on the Norwegian Shelf in 2018 were at approximately the same level as the previous year, but several of the developments that are underway, led by Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg, will contribute to substantial growth in 2019. The industry has done good work on cost control and efficiency in recent years, which has led to a considerable reduction in both exploration, development and operating costs. This is important to ensure that the Norwegian Shelf is competitive and has good resource management. “A lower cost level is also reflected in the new projects that are approved. These are projects that are profitable for both the companies and the Norwegian society. The general scenario is that the new development projects will be profitable with significantly lower oil prices than the current level,” says Nyland.
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