石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社12月23日消息 自10月初以来，油价不仅下跌了近40%，而且还低于欧佩克在2017年1月开始第一轮减产时的水平。 这种悲观情绪背后有两个主要因素：第一个问题源于对该集团削减产意愿的过度怀疑。第二种观点基于对全球前景的负面看法，这种看法可能会发生变化，而如果发生了变化，就会出现大幅反弹。 在俄罗斯的斡旋下，欧佩克最近达成了一项协议，将在明年1月从全球石油供应中每日削减约120万桶的产量。这一跌幅表明，交易员们不相信减产会得到实施。 目前产量水平的大幅下降取决于沙特阿拉伯。沙特石油部长在维也纳承诺，沙特将比承诺的减产力度更大，就像它在2017年所做的那样。到目前为止，欧佩克协议的历史表明，那些真正重要的国家(沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、美国、俄罗斯)虽然花了一点时间才完成，但实现了削减。 吴慧丹 摘译自 彭博社 原文如下： What’s Got Oil So Spooked? It’s the Economy, Stupid Not only are oil prices down nearly 40 percent since early October, they’re below where they were when the OPEC+ group of producers began their first round of output cuts in January 2017. There are two main factors behind this pessimism. The first stems from an undue skepticism about the group’s willingness to trim output. The second follows from a negative view about the global outlook that is subject to change – and if it does, a sharp rebound is in store. The recent Russian-brokered deal to cut around 1.2 million barrels a day from global supply in January should have put a floor under prices. Their drop suggests traders don’t believe the cuts will be implemented. The bulk of the reduction from current production levels hinges on Saudi Arabia. Its oil minister pledged in Vienna that the kingdom would go even further than it had promised to reduce output, just as it did in 2017. The history of the OPEC+ deal so far shows that those who really matter (Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Russia) came through with the cuts – even if it took them a little time to get there.
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