石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏新加坡12月18日消息，市场参与者周二表示，亚洲石脑油市场在近期交易时段出现反弹，由于欧洲生产商和贸易商在LR运费居高不下的情况下难以将过剩的货物运往远东，该地区的供应逐渐紧张。 普氏能源资讯数据显示，东北亚石脑油市场结构已经逆转，一线和三线CFR日本石脑油现货基准价差在上周五收于3.25美元/吨，较上一交易日下跌25美分/桶。 自10月9日以来，市场已被锁定在近期两个月的期货结构中，此时价差为负2美元/桶，因为亚洲未能吸收大量欧洲套利供应，许多亚洲石化厂正在努力优化其运行率，在下游利润微弱的情况下，不会损害他们严酷的经济。 然而，贸易消息人士表示，如果来自欧洲的套利活动继续放缓，那么一线和三线交易周期之间的差价至少在短期内可能保持在正值区间。 普氏能源资讯调查的交易商表示，他们预计1月份欧洲约有150万至180万吨石脑油进入亚洲市场，较最初预测的170万至200万吨有所下降。 市场消息人士指出，运费上涨将使欧洲货物在亚洲市场的竞争力下降，从根本上打击西方卖家在远东寻找买家的积极性。 周一，从地中海运往日本的石脑油LR1货轮周一的租船费率为41.82美元/吨，而LR2油轮的租船费率为33.75美元/吨。 普氏能源资讯数据显示，两艘油轮价格分别高于上周39.636美元/吨和33.378美元/吨的平均价格，LR2价格较5月18日17.50美元/吨的年内低点上涨了约93%。 新加坡的一位交易员表示，只要欧洲套利流量仍然有限，亚洲最终用户应该能够吸收该地区1月份剩余的供应过剩，并且2月份的供需动态可能基本保持平衡。 这位交易员表示:“1月份将不会出现过剩。” 曹海斌 摘译自 路透社 原文如下： Asian naphtha market strengthens as lofty freight rates block European supply The Asian naphtha market staged a rebound in recent trading sessions, as supplies gradually tightened in the region with European producers and traders struggling to push their surplus cargoes to the Far East amid lofty LR freight rates, market participants said Tuesday. The Northeast Asian naphtha market structure has flipped to backwardation, with the spread between the first-line and third-line CFR Japan naphtha physical benchmark settling at $3.25/mt last Friday, up from minus 25 cents/b the previous day, S&P Global Platts data showed. The market had been locked in a contango structure for almost two months since October 9, when the spread was assessed at minus $2/b, as Asia failed to absorb the flurry of European arbitrage supplies with many Asian petrochemical plants struggling to optimize their run rates without hurting their cracking economics amid weak downstream margins. However, trade sources said the spread between the first-line and third-line trading cycles — could stay in positive territory at least in the near term if arbitrage naphtha flows from Europe continue to slow down. Traders surveyed by Platts said they expect around 1.5 million-1.8 million mt of naphtha from Europe to reach Asia in January — a downward revision from the initial forecast of 1.7 million-2 million mt. Market sources noted that rising freight rates would make European cargoes less competitive in the Asian market, essentially discouraging the sellers in the West to look for buyers in the Far East. The chartering rate for LR1 vessels moving naphtha from the Mediterranean to Japan was assessed at $41.82/mt on Monday, and for LR2 tankers at $33.75/mt. Both tanker rates were above the previous week’s average of $39.636/mt and $33.378/mt, respectively, and the LR2 rate is up around 93% since the lowest point for the year so far of $17.50/mt on May 18, Platts data showed. Asian end-users should be able to absorb any excess supply left in the region in January and the supply/demand dynamics could stay largely balanced in February as long as European arbitrage flows remain limited, a Singapore-based trader said. “There will be no overhang in January,” the trader said.
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