石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据华盛顿特区彭博社12月12日消息，美国政府将2019年国内原油产量的预测保持不变，尽管平均价格比先前的预测低了近11美元/桶。 能源信息管理局（Energy Information.）在月度展望中表示，明年石油生产商平均日产量为1206万桶/日，高于2018年的1088万桶/日。该机构认为，10月份的产量有所下降，当时，由于飓风迈克尔（Michael）的影响，一些离岸生产已关闭，11月才开始恢复。 美国页岩产量的迅速增长使欧佩克及其盟国削减供应和支持价格的努力复杂化。尽管西德克萨斯州和新墨西哥州二叠纪盆地等地区的瓶颈制约对未来的增长构成风险，但2019年末和2020年新管道投入使用应该会缓解这种拥堵。美国明年将占全球石油液体产量的近五分之一。 该机构还把明年的全球需求预测从10151万桶/日提高到10161万桶/日。在美国，明年几乎一半的增长将来自于天然气，汽油需求将从今年的下滑中反弹。 尽管油价从10月份的高点下跌了30%以上，但生产商并不回避在美国油田上花钱。康菲石油公司周一表示，其2019年预算的一半用于美国大陆，而雪佛龙公司仅在二叠纪盆地就投资了36亿美元。 胡晶晶摘译自彭博社 原文如下 U.S. oil production continues to grow despite lower prices The U.S. government left its forecast for domestic crude production unchanged for 2019 even with prices averaging almost $11/bbl lower than its previous estimate. Oil producers will pump an average 12.06 MMbpd next year, up from 10.88 MMbpd in 2018, the Energy Information Administration said in a monthly outlook. The agency saw output dropping during October, when some offshore production was shut in due to Hurricane Michael, before recovering in November. The swift growth of American shale production has complicated efforts by OPEC and its allies to trim supply and support prices. While bottlenecks in areas such as the Permian basin of West Texas and New Mexico pose a risk to future growth, new pipelines coming on line in late 2019 and 2020 should ease that congestion. The U.S. will account for almost one-fifth of global petroleum liquids output next year. The agency also raised its global demand forecast for next year to 101.61 MMbpd from 101.51 MMbpd. In the U.S., almost half of the growth next year will come from gas liquids, with gasoline demand rebounding from a decline this year. Producers aren’t shying away from spending money in U.S. fields, despite prices dropping more than 30% from the October highs. ConocoPhillips said Monday it’s spending half its 2019 budget in the continental U.S., while Chevron is investing $3.6 billion in the Permian basin alone.
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