石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据ICIS网12月4日消息 VCI贸易组织周二表示，由于全球贸易冲突接近、德国经济放缓和布雷克西特未知数，德国化工行业2019年的前景“不那么乐观”。 德国是欧洲最大的化工生产国。2018，该行业的总销售额首次超过2000亿欧元。 该贸易组织表示：“这些迹象很清楚：德国的经济增长已经接近尾声，到2019年，整个经济的增长势头可能进一步减弱。” VCI称：“鉴于全球经济的不利发展、保护主义和经济制裁的扩散，这种商业增长将会受到抑制，而且很可能是短暂的。” 该贸易组织补充说，德国的化学行业留下了“良好”的一年，尽管它承认许多化学制品的产量实际上已经下降。 积极的数据来自于价格上涨，归功于全年原油价格上涨。 然而，尽管美中贸易战休战后有几天有所改善，但10月份原油价格突然下跌，至今仍未恢复。 VCI表示，德国的化学品销售额在2018年同比增长4.5%，到2018年达到2040亿欧元，同时产量增长2.5%，价格上涨2.0%。 然而，产量的提高主要是由制药行业11.5%的增长推动的。 无机基础化学品产量下降了2.5%，聚合物和石油化学品产量分别下降了2%，而肥皂、洗涤剂和清洁产品或化妆品制造商的产量比2017年减少了3%。 精细专业化学品确实增加了产量，然而，同比增长了1.5%。 展望2019年，VCI预计，“如果没有重大挫折”，化学制药行业的产量将增长1.5%。化工价格预计将上涨1%，销售额将提高2.5%。 VCI总裁最后强调了对全球化的防御，这让德国的化学品得以蓬勃发展。 孔丽炜 摘译自 ICIS 原文如下： Germany’s chemicals industry’s outlook for 2019 is “less optimistic” due to looming global trade conflicts, a slowdown in the country’s economy and Brexit unknowns, trade group VCI said on Tuesday. Germany is the largest chemical producing country in Europe. In 2018, the sector’s total sales surpassed for the first time the €200bn mark. “The signs are quite clear: The upswing in Germany is nearing its end. Growth of the overall economy is likely to further lose in momentum in the course of 2019,” said the trade group. “In view of the less favourable development of the global economy, spreading protectionism and economic sanctions, such an increase in business will be restrained and probably short,” it said. Germany’s chemicals leave behind a “good” year, the trade group added, although it conceded that production for many chemicals had actually decreased. The positive figures came from higher pricing, helped by increasing crude oil prices throughout the year. The improvement in output, however, was mostly driven by an 11.5% improvement in the pharmaceutical sector. Output of inorganic basic chemicals dropped 2.5%, polymers and petrochemicals output dropped 2% each, while manufacturers of soaps, detergents and cleaning products or cosmetics produced 3% less than in 2017. Fine specialty chemicals did increase its output, however, up by 1.5% year on year. Looking at 2019, VCI expects production in the chemical-pharmaceutical industry to increase by 1.5% “if there are no major” setbacks. Chemical prices are expected to rise by 1% and sales would improve by 2.5%. VCI’s president ended with an emphatic defense of globalisation, which has allowed Germany’s chemicals to thrive, he said.
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