石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯11月20日墨西哥消息称，墨西哥国家石油公司估计墨西哥南部的石油需求受限约为10亿立方英尺/日。 墨西哥国家石油公司的首席执行官表示，Pemex预计墨西哥南部将有足够的天然气需求，以允许其位于Pajaritos港口的新液化天然气终端运营。 Pemex首席执行官卡洛斯特雷维诺上周在阿布扎比举行的ADIPEC会议期间表示：“我相信墨西哥南部的天然气需求将增长到足以让两个供应项目运营。”Cenagas还支持Cempoala开发压缩机站回收项目，该项目也将在2019年满足墨西哥南部的需求。 根据朴实分析的数据，拟议的Pajaritos浮式再气化和储存装置可能是墨西哥南部地区的重要供应线，该地区正面临墨西哥一些最严重的天然气供应短缺问题。 因此，今年半岛地区的电力价格异常高，因为该地区发电对柴油和燃料油的依赖程度要高得多，工业用户的需求减少。 帕加里托斯港正在开发的Pemex新FRSU将每天供应500百万立方英尺。预计将于3月开始运营。 总部位于墨西哥城的能源咨询公司HCX的合伙人Rodrigo Favela上周表示，Pajaritos液化天然气终端将在未来几年缓解墨西哥南部的天然气短缺问题。 他补充说：“在区域需求增加的情况下，Pemex的生产目标很可能无法实现，因此我们预计墨西哥南部的天然气短缺将持续多年。” 据Cenagas称，Pemex在全国范围内的天然气加工厂和干气田的供应量从2017年的19.6亿立方英尺/日和2012年的36亿立方英尺/日降至2018年的平均每日17.4亿立方英尺。 据Cenagas称，如果这种趋势继续下去，Pemex对Sistrangas天然气网络供应将在2019年降至14.9亿立方英尺/日，到2022年降至893百万立方英尺/日。 Favela认为，需要重新配置Cempoala压缩站和Pajarito LNG终端来供应墨西哥南部。 Favela表示:“人们没有意识到，墨西哥对天然气的重要需求是供过于求，这引发了额外的消费。” 该顾问认为，墨西哥南部通过Cempoala压缩站获得的天然气供应量将低于市场预期。 他说：“由于墨西哥北部、中部和西部的需求增长，流经Cempoala南部的天然气供应量将低于预期。” 普氏预计，由于需求持平、国内产量仍在下降，墨西哥南方市场在11月净短缺约160百万立方英尺/天。 CellModel表示，数据显示，墨西哥南部的天然气市场实际上同比收缩约50万立方英尺/日。 这种短缺的一个表现是半岛地区的流出量减少，半岛地区通过280百万立方英尺/天的 Mayakan管道与南部地区相连。 根据普氏分析数据，10月份Mayakan的日平均流量为5300万立方英尺，同比下降约40％。 但普氏分析表示，Pemex加快Pajarito FRSU商业运营的时间可能难以实现。FRSU的建设取决于单位市场的可用性以及项目陆上部分的监管。根据普氏分析的数据，FRSU在阿根廷巴伊亚布兰卡终端的最短开发时间约为5个月。 曹海斌 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： Pemex confident demand exists for LNG terminal project in southern Mexico Pemex estimates 1 Bcf/d of constrained demand in southern Mexico Pemex expects there will be enough gas demand in southern Mexico to allow its new LNG terminal in the port of Pajaritos to operate, the CEO of the state oil company said. “I believe the gas demand in southern Mexico will grow enough for both supply projects to operate,” Carlos Trevino, Pemex CEO, said last week on the sidelines of the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi. Cenagas also is supporting the development of a compressor station reversal project at Cempoala, which will also serve southern Mexico demand in 2019. The proposed Pajaritos floating regasification and storage unit could be an important supply line for Mexico’s southern region, which is facing some of the most severe gas-supply shortages in Mexico, according to Platts Analytics. As a result, power prices in the peninsular region have been exceptionally high this year as the region has been far more reliant on diesel and fuel oil for power generation and industrial users have seen their demand curtailed. The new FRSU Pemex is developing at the Port of Pajaritos will supply up to 500 MMcf/d. It is expected to begin operation in March. The Pajaritos LNG terminal will relieve gas shortages in southern Mexico in the years to come, Rodrigo Favela, a partner of Mexico City-based energy consulting firm HCX, said last week. “It is probable that Pemex’s production goals won’t be achieved while regional demand increases, so we expect the gas deficit will continue for years to come in southern Mexico,” he added. According to Cenagas, supply from Pemex’s gas-processing plants and dry gas fields nationwide has fallen to an average 1.74 Bcf/d in 2018 from 1.96 Bcf/d in 2017 and 3.6 Bcf/d in 2012. If the trend continues, Pemex’s gas supply into the Sistrangas network will fall to 1.49 Bcf/d in 2019 and 893 MMcf/d by 2022, according to Cenagas. Favela considers that both the reconfiguration of the Cempoala compression station and the Pajarito LNG terminal will be required to supply southern Mexico. “People don’t realize that there is an important demand for gas in Mexico that it isn’t being supplied and it is triggering additional consumption,” Favela said. The consultant considers that the availability of gas in southern Mexico through the Cempoala compression station will be less than the market expects. “The availability of gas flowing through Cempoala south will be less than expected due to the demand growth in northern, central, and western Mexico,” he said. With demand flat and domestic production still declining, Platts Analytics Mexico CellModel estimates that the southern market balance has been net short roughly 160 MMcf/d in November. Data indicated southern Mexico’s gas market, in fact, is about 50 MMcf/d tighter year on year, CellModel showed. One place where this shortage has manifested is in lower outflows to the Peninsular Region, which is connected to the southern region through the 280 MMcf/d Mayakan pipeline. Flows on Mayakan averaged 53 MMcf/d in October, down an estimated 40% year on year, according to Platts Analytics. But Pemex’s accelerated timeline for the commercial operation of the Pajarito FRSU might be difficult to meet, according to Platts Analytics. The construction of the FRSU depends on unit market availability and the regulation surrounding the onshore portion of the project. The shortest development time of an FRSU was roughly five months at the Bahia Blanca terminal in Argentina, according to Platts Analytics.
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