石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社11月14日伦敦消息称，由于迎接美国大部分地区异常寒冷的天气，市场正努力储备稀缺的天然气，美国天然气价格已经跃升至四年多以来的最高水平。 2019年1月在Henry Hub交付的天然气期货价格从月初的3.28美元飙升至每百万英热单位4.50美元以上，是2014年7月以来的最高水平。 根据美国能源情报署的数据，天然气库存处于15年来最低的季节性水平，比去年同期和五年平均水平低15-16％。 虽然由于厄尔尼诺现象在太平洋上空发展，大多数气象预报员都预测美国北部将迎来一个相对温和的冬季，但最近气温远低于季节平均水平。 在11月的第一周结束之前，气温比长期平均温度略微低，并且与2015年、2016年和2017年的冬季开始时一致。 然而，自那以来，美国48个州中的大多数州的气温急剧下降，导致累计供暖需求急剧上升。 根据美国政府的气候预测中心的数据，预计下周北部和东部大部分人口中心的气温比平均水平更冷。 如果预测是正确的，这将是三年来首次低于平均起始温度，并加大了本已紧张的天然气供应的压力。 由于市场试图尽可能地限制消费，异常寒冷天气与极低天然气库存综合起来导致近期天然气价格飙升。 价格上涨应该鼓励燃气发电厂限制未来几周的运营时间以节约库存，而价格差异应该导致最大限度地转向煤炭发电。 如果基准天然气价格上涨到足够高，它们也可能阻碍液化天然气出口。 但低库存使得市场非常脆弱，价格飙升可能会在冬季晚些时候再次出现，以应对任何长时间的寒冷天气。 陈菲 摘译自 路透社 原文如下： COLUMN-U.S. natural gas prices leap to four-year high amid low stocks U.S. natural gas prices have leapt to the highest level for more than four years as the market tries to conserve scarce gas stocks in the face of unusually cold weather settling across much of the country. Futures prices for gas delivered at Henry Hub in January 2019 have surged to more than $4.50 per million British thermal units, up from just $3.28 at the start of the month, and the highest since July 2014. Gas stocks are at the lowest seasonal level for 15 years and around 15-16 percent lower than at the same point last year and the five-year average, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. While most forecasters have been predicting a relatively mild winter across the northern United States because of the El Niño developing over the Pacific, temperatures have recently fallen far below the seasonal average. Until the end of the first week in November, temperatures had been slightly milder than the long-run average and in line with the start of winter in 2015, 2016 and 2017. Since then, however, temperatures have plunged well below normal across most of the lower 48 states pushing cumulative heating demand up sharply (tmsnrt.rs/2QHeLqG). Colder than average weather is expected to persist across most northern and eastern population centres for the next week according to the U.S. government’s Climate Prediction Center. If the forecast is correct, this will be the first colder than average start for over three years and increase the pressure on already-stretched gas supplies. The confluence of unusually cold weather with very low gas stocks has sent near-term gas prices surging as the market tries to limit consumption as much as possible. Rising prices should encourage gas-fired power producers to limit the number of hours they run in the next few weeks to conserve stocks, while price differentials should result in maximum switching to coal generation. If benchmark gas prices rise high enough, they could also discourage LNG exports. But low inventories have left the market very vulnerable with price spikes likely to recur later in the winter to cope with any extended periods of cold weather.
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