石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯丹佛10月26日消息称，输送产能的增加以及液化天然气价格的上涨，继续推动美国东北部的天然气产量增加。 西南能源公司首席执行官Bill Way在周五上午的电话会议上表示：“本季度的现金流比去年同期高出40％以上。”“这一结果主要得益于随着液化天然气价格的上涨，液化天然气主要以回报为中心的增长，得益于随着区域基础的收紧，我们领先的低成本天然气运输组合，以及得益于我们领先的运营团队的运营成果。” 东北地区的生产商一直在准备利用管道项目的增量生产输送能力，这些管道项目目前已经投入使用。过去两个月，随着能源转移合作伙伴的罗孚管道和威廉姆斯的跨大西洋日出扩建项目使设备投入使用，俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州西部的油井库存大幅减少，而宾夕法尼亚州东北部的钻井平台也有所增加。 美国天然气供应协会的数据显示，西南天然气公司是第二季度美国第四大天然气生产国，它在第三季度阿巴拉契亚产量增加了22％。 美国东北部天然气生产商卡伯特油气公司周五公布的财务报告显示，作为第二季度美国第五大天然气生产商，该公司第三季度平均日产量增加10％，至20.2亿立方英尺/日。 由于管道输送能力逐渐增加，自治联盟南方供应中心的远期基准定价得到加强，并可能持续促进产量增长。 美国东北地区的运营商期待已久的ETP罗孚管道已经全面投入使用，该管道旨在将俄亥俄州、西弗吉尼亚州和宾夕法尼亚州的阿巴拉契亚天然气每日将32.5亿立方英尺的天然气输送到美国中西部和加拿大安大略省的黎明中心。 虽然从2017年9月开始，该项目第一期的产能约为15亿立方英尺/日，但由于不可预见的监管和施工延误，二期产能的最大份额被推迟到2018年8月。 根据普氏数据，由于大多数二期设施已获得FERC批准并已投入使用，因此最近几天罗孚管道的流量已高达30亿立方英尺/天。到目前为止，大部分的输气量可能来自其他区域管道，包括德克萨斯东部和哥伦比亚天然气，而不是来自东北的增量生产。如果多米尼南供应中心的现有基础实力继续增保持，到2019年，产量的增加将获得进一步的支持多米尼南部 2019的正向曲线平均比Henry Hub低50美分/ MMBtu，相比之下，2017年的现金平均水平为85美分/ MMBtu，而前几年则超过100美分 / MMBtu。 虽然第四季度东北地区的日产量预计平均为300亿立方英尺，或第三季度日产量为11亿立方英尺，但由于预计最早在8月份就能实现的增产输送能力的延迟，第四季度的产量可能存在一定的下行风险。由于这种产能现已投入使用，但比预期的要晚，过去几个月预计的增长现在正在发生。普氏预计2019年东北地区日产量将达到312亿立方英尺，比2018年的预期平均值高出30亿立方英尺。 陈菲 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： Appalachian producers boost natural gas output in Q3 Increased takeaway capacity combined with higher prices for natural gas liquids continues to drive gas production increases in the Northeastern US. “This quarter’s cash flow was more than 40% higher than the same period last year,” said Southwestern Energy CEO Bill Way during an earning’s call Friday morning. “Results benefited from our returns-focused growth of liquids as prices improved, from our leading low cost gas transportation portfolio as regional basis tightened and from operational achievements made by our leading operational team.” Northeast producers have been readying themselves to take advantage of incremental production takeaway capacity from pipeline projects that are now being placed in-service at long last. In tandem with Energy Transfer Partners’ Rover Pipeline and Williams’ Transco Atlantic Sunrise expansion placing facilities in-service over the past two months, large drawdowns in well inventory materialized in Ohio and Western Pennsylvania, while rig releases in Northeast Pennsylvania have also strengthened. Southwestern, which was the fourth-largest gas producer in the US during the second quarter, according to the Natural Gas Supple Association, increased its Appalachian production during the third quarter by 22%. Fellow Northeast producer Cabot Oil and Gas, which was the fifth-largest US gas producer during the second quarter, increased its average daily production during the third quarter by 10% to 2.02 Bcf/d on average, according to the company’s latest earning’s report released Friday. As a result of incremental pipeline takeaway capacity becoming available, forward basis pricing at the Dominion South supply hub has strengthened and could encourage continued production growth. Operators in the Northeast have long-awaited the full in-service of ETP’s Rover Pipeline, which is designed to transport 3.25 Bcf/d of Appalachian gas in Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania to the US Midwest and the Dawn Hub in Ontario, Canada. While roughly 1.5 Bcf/d of capacity has been available since September 2017 from Phase I of the project, the lion’s share of capacity, coming from Phase II, was delayed into August 2018 due to unforeseen regulatory and construction delays. As most Phase II facilities have received FERC approval and been placed in-service, flows on Rover have reached as high as 3 Bcf/d in recent days, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Thus far, a majority of the volumes hitting the pipeline likely were the result of rerouted volumes from other regional pipelines, including Texas Eastern and Columbia Gas, rather than incremental Northeast production. Increased production volumes will garner further support in 2019 if current forward basis strength at the Dominion South supply hub continues. The Dominion South 2019 forward curve is averaging 50 cents/MMBtu below Henry Hub, compared to the 2017 cash average of 85 cents/MMBtu back, and over $1.00/MMBtu back in prior years. While Northeast production volumes are forecast to average 30 Bcf/d during the fourth quarter, or 1.1 Bcf/d over the third quarter, there is likely some downside risk to fourth quarter volumes due to delays to incremental production takeaway capacity that was expected to be available as early as August. With this capacity now in-service, but later than anticipated, growth that was expected in the past few months is now occurring. Platts expects Northeast production to average 31.2 Bcf/d in 2019, which represents 3 Bcf/d of growth over the 2018 expected average.
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