“这对于整个国际社会而言都是重要的一天。我感谢所有帮助这一切成为现实的人。”1月16日，国际原子能机构总干事天野之弥表示。终于，历经波折与期待，伊朗人等来了制裁基本终结的这一天。伊朗解禁，意味着世界石油格局又将要发生巨变，这对于石油公司来说，可能是一次脱离泥潭的机会。
伊朗，一个拥有世界第四大石油储量和世界第二大天然气储量的国家，目前俨然成为最为热门的新闻话题之一，例如前不久的伊朗大选成了大家关注的焦点，大家感觉伊朗政坛即将“变天”。改革派是否已经冲破保守派压制成功“逆袭”，伊朗“改革之花”即将漫山遍野？伊朗大选肯定了政治权力向温和派和改革派的转移。
从油气行业的角度来看，国际制裁的解除给伊朗以及国际石油公司（IOC）提供了机会，石油价格可能会借势一路狂跌，跌到十年来的最低水平。尽管价格会稍有反弹，但长期供大于求的现状表明，油价强势反弹短时间内不再会出现。
国际石油公司正在饱受摧残，很多迹象都可以表明这点，比如削减股息、利润下降、裁员等。在这种情况下，国际石油公司需要找到一条降本增效之路，在资本支出最少的情况下保证勘探开发和生产。就其本身而言，伊朗有一个得天独厚的优势——伊朗每桶油的生产成本约为$ 12，相比之下，沙特阿拉伯的桶油成本平均$ 9，美国约为$ 37，英国约为$ 52。国际石油公司表示愿意接受在伊朗投资所面临的风险和挑战，在2020年之前投资1850亿美元用于勘探开发约18个区块和50个石油和天然气项目，被称为新的“伊朗石油合同”（IPC），可能只是时间问题。
另一方面，伊朗似乎担心引入本国的投资，因为它正在更新其老化的石油和天然气基础设施，为了增加产量以满足国内需求和政府不断增长的支出需要。初期250亿美元的引入外资已经基本落实，几个欧洲技术领先的石油公司（BP、埃尼公司、雷普索尔国家石油公司、壳牌、挪威国家石油公司、道达尔）正在商榷中。在2015年9月底，石油部长Bijan Zangeneh宣布，一旦经济制裁被解除，伊朗是一个雄心勃勃的国家，不会缩减其石油产量，并且该国的目标是在2016年底原油产量将达到420万桶/天。为了夺回失去的市场份额，伊朗产量目前维持在285万桶/天，Zangeneh预计伊朗收回市场份额超过100万桶/天。更为保守的估计，在解除制裁的六个月内，受协商减缓石油产量的影响，产量的增长会在60万桶/天到100万桶/天之间。
这个国家经历了一系列的动荡事件，可谓命途多舛，更重要的是美国中央情报局1953年政变取代民选总理Mohammad Mosaddeq，其次是Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi的就职。这最终导致了1979年的伊朗革命，随之到来的是与伊拉克长达八年之久的战争和各种制裁，2011年是伊朗最惨的一年。令人惊讶的是，面临如此多的灾难，伊朗仍然不仅是中东一个占主导地位的国家，还有着与沙特阿拉伯分庭抗礼的能力。由于解禁后的伊朗最终可以合法地改变该地区的石油格局，威胁沙特阿拉伯的统治地位，改变目前相对稳定的局面，所以不仅是在局部地区，在国际上伊朗都是一个非常重要的国家。
伊朗有着悠久的石油历史——中东地区第一次发现石油是由达西公司于1908年在伊朗西南部发现的。独立革命之后，伊朗政府收回了生产石油和拥有本国自然资源的权利，伊朗国家石油公司（NIOC）有史以来提供的第一份合同是回购合同。这些合同类似于服务合同，要求国际石油公司投入自己的资本和专业技术来开发一个油气田。按回购合同，油田的生产经营权又回到了本国石油公司手中，用销售收入来偿还国际石油公司的资本支出。此外，国际石油公司并没有得到任何油田的股份，只是按照一定的比例根据每年的产量和利润偿还这些公司的资金技术投入。
在上世纪90年代末和21世纪初，新版的回购合同吸引了数十亿美元的外国投资，但是好景不长，2011-2012年欧盟和美国对伊朗的制裁比以往更加严厉，严重影响到了伊朗的能源行业，导致投资者陆续撤资离开伊朗。造成的直接后果是，在2012年石油和凝析油的出口相比2011年下降了约100 万桶/天，直到2015年一直维持在这一水平。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）统计，伊朗的油气出口收入下降了47％，从2011-2012年的1150亿美元降到2013-2014年度的630亿美元。
在2015年11月29日闭幕的伊朗国际油气会议上，伊朗石油部推出了一项新的石油合同模式(IPC)，新推出的合同将取代传统的回购合同模式，以帮助伊朗从欧洲和亚洲吸引急需的投资。伊朗过去的回购合同模式，只是支付国际投资者固定的服务费，而勘探开采的风险由国际投资者独立承担，合同期限也较短，导致其对国际资本吸引力有限。根据新的合同模式，国际投资者有望从开采的油气中得到分成，而且合同期限长达20年，甚至可延长至25年。
从新石油合同可看出，伊朗政府正使劲浑身解数吸引外国投资，为了发展本国的基础设施和提高石油产量。
尽管IPC的细节尚未敲定，预计合同将是对现有回购合同的改善，这给国际石油公司提供了一个新的机会。根据新合同的条款，国际石油公司仍对油田区块没有所有权，但能够与伊朗国家石油公司建立合资企业，或其子公司参与管理油田勘探开发生产项目的整个阶段。双方合作将从勘探开发阶段延续到生产阶段，甚至有可能延续到三次采油阶段。利润分成方面也做了改动并达成了共识。
为了使该国原油产量翻番，也就是从目前的285万桶/天增加到570万桶/天，50个油气开发项目和18个勘探区块的开放预计在2016年5月实现，这将为国际石油公司提供一个千载难逢的机会，借此时机重新平衡自己的投资组合，在低油价环境中依旧保持竞争力。授权合作的项目将包括陆上和海上的油田，以及不同复杂程度的早期和后期阶段项目。
当前形势下，所有的石油公司都在努力削减资本和运营开支，伊朗低廉的开采成本为所有石油公司提供了一次翻盘的机会，这对于石油公司来说非常有吸引力。然而，福兮祸之所伏，进入伊朗需要仔细考虑所要面临的方方面面的挑战和风险。伊朗的政治风险仍然很高，与中东一些邻国的关系非常微妙，伊朗甚至与距离遥远的国家有着矛盾。石油公司必须做好充分的心理准备，全方面评估这些风险和挑战。然而，石油公司在伊朗建立业务所要面临的主要风险还是新一轮的国际制裁，如果伊朗继续其核计划，那么有可能会面临再次国际制裁，这对于石油公司来说可谓是致命打击。
作者/Johannes Sobotzki & Pavel Sharma 译者/于晓林 编辑/Wang Lin
Iran, a country boasting the fourth largest oil and the second largest gas reserves in the world, has currently become one of the most prominent news topics–for example today’s election news affirming the shifting of political power to the moderate and reform candidates.
From the oil and gas industry point of view, the lifting of international sanctions provides the country, as well as International Oil Companies (IOCs), with opportunities at a time when oil prices are down to levels not seen for a decade. Although there is every likelihood that prices will rebound, the drivers of demand and supply indicate that this may not happen for some time.
The IOCs are hurting, reflected largely by their cut back in dividend as well as profit falls and job cuts. Under these circumstances, IOCs need to look for exploration and production opportunities that require comparatively little capital and operational expenditure. As such, Iran presents itself as a great opportunity – with costs to produce a barrel of crude in Iran estimated at around US$ 12 compared to an average of around US$ 9 in Saudi Arabia, around US$ 36 in the USA and around US$ 52 in the UK. Provided the IOCs are willing to accept the risks and challenges that arise with investing in Iran, the offering of about 18 E&P blocks and 50 oil and gas projects worth US$ 185 billion by 2020 under the new ‘Iranian Petroleum Contract’ (IPC), might just be the need of the hour.
On the other hand, Iran itself seems anxious about the incoming investment, as it is looking to update its aging oil & gas infrastructure, in order to increase production to meet the rising local demand alongside helping fund government spending. An initial foreign investment of around US$ 25 billion is targeted and several leading European E&P companies (BP, Eni, Repsol, Shell, Statoil, Total) are believed to have been in discussions. In late September 2015, the Minister of Petroleum, Bijan Zangeneh, declared the path chosen by the country by announcing that Iran will not hold back its oil production once economic sanctions are removed and that the country’s crude output will reach an ambitious 4.2 MMbo/d by the end of 2016. Crude oil production currently stands at around 2.85 MMbo/d and in an effort to reclaim its lost share of exports, Zangeneh anticipates the country taking back a market share of more than 1 MMbo/d. More conservative estimates, however, suggest an increase in production of between 600,000 bo/d and 1 MMbo/d within six months of the lifting of sanctions – subject to the negotiations ongoing for freezing oil production.
The country has gone through a series of tumultuous events, the more important being the CIA’s 1953 coup displacing the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddeq, followed by the installation of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. This ultimately led to the Iranian Revolution in 1979, followed by an eight-year-long war with Iraq and various sanctions, which hit the country worst in 2011. Having faced such, it is surprising for many to see the country still being a dominant player in the Middle East and competing with Saudi Arabia. This very point makes the country hugely important – not only regionally but internationally – because a freely trading Iran, which will ultimately make the country financially secure, can reasonably change the power dynamics of the region, the dominance of Saudi Arabia and the fundamentals of relative stability left in the region.
Iran has a long oil history – the first oil discovery in the Middle East was made by the D’Arcy Company in 1908 in southwestern Iran (the Masjid-i-Sulaiman Field). Following the revolution, the right of producing and owning natural resources was given to the Iranian Government and the only contracts that the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) ever offered were buyback contracts. These contracts were similar to service contracts and required the IOCs to invest their own capital and expertise to develop an oil or gas field. As per the buyback contracts, upon commencement of production from a field operatorship reverted back to the NIOC, which then used the revenue from sales to pay back the IOCs their capital expenditure. Additionally, the IOCs did not get any equity in the fields and the annual repayment rates to the companies were based on predetermined percentages of the field’s production, as well as the predetermined rate of return.
The latest form of buyback contracts attracted billions of dollars of foreign investment in the 1990s and early 2000s, until nearly all investors left the country when the EU and the US enacted measures in 2011-12 that affected the Iranian energy sector more profoundly than any previous sanctions. As a result, oil & condensate exports in 2012 fell by around 1.0 MMbbl/d compared to 2011 and stayed around the same level until 2015. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Iran’s oil and gas export revenues dropped by 47% from US$ 118 billion in the 2011-12 fiscal year to US$ 63 billion in 2012-13.
The new Iranian Petroleum Contract (IPC)， which contains terms similar to a Production Sharing Agreement (PSA)， was unveiled at the Tehran Summit in November 2015. With the new IPC， the Government is trying to increase the country’s attractiveness to foreign investment in the industry， in order to develop infrastructure and to boost production.
Although the finer details of the IPC are yet to be finalised， it is expected that the contract will be an improvement on the existing buybacks， presenting a new opportunity to the IOC’s. Under the new contract terms， companies will remain unable to have ownership of reserves， but will be able to establish JVs with NIOC， or its subsidiaries， to manage the entire life cycle of a project. Companies will have a longer time period of between 20 to 25 years to explore， develop and produce from a field， with the possibility to extending it to the Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) phases. Fiscal terms are also understood to have been reworked.
The auctioning of 50 oil and gas projects and 18 E&P blocks – aimed at doubling the country’s crude oil output from 2.85 MMbo/d to 5.7 MMbo/d – is expected to be held in May 2016 and will provide IOCs with an opportunity to help rebalance their portfolios and books and to remain competitive in a low oil price environment. The licensing round will include onshore and offshore， as well as early and late stage projects， with varying degrees of complexity.
At a time when companies are looking to cut capital and operating expenditures， the low-cost barrels that are going to be available make an entry / re-entry in Iran look very attractive. However， entering Iran will require careful consideration of the challenges and risks， below， as well as above ground. Political risks remain high too， with the country having poor relations with a number of neighbours in the Middle East， as well as further afield. Companies will have to assess how entering Iran might affect their business elsewhere. However， the major risk for any company establishing operations in Iran is the potential of renewed sanctions， should the country fail to adhere to the agreements made regarding its nuclear programme.
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