石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据《油气杂志》6月21日休斯敦报道，美国能源安全分析公司（ESAI能源）日前预测美国的页岩油日产量在今年年底前将达到560万桶，比去年年底日增100多万桶。但是，由于每桶50美元以下的油价很有可能阻止钻机增加的势头，明年美国页岩油产量的增幅预计将放缓。
ESAI能源公司说，美国页岩油和致密油生产商已比一年前更能以低油价实现盈利，但是，大多数页岩油和致密油生产商需要每桶40美元以上的油价来实现收支平衡。
ESAI能源公司认为今年最活跃盆地将看到大约15%至20%的成本膨胀。分析师们预计2015-2016年出现的的生产力增长将开始显示趋于平衡的迹象。
ESAI能源公司的伊丽莎白·墨菲说，尽管明年增幅预计将放缓，但是，美国明年的页岩油日产量预计将比今年增加大约50万桶，这仍然是一个令人印象非常深刻的增长。
李峻 编译自 油气杂志
原文如下： ESAI: US shale oil production growth to slow in 2018
HOUSTON 06/21/2017 OGJ
ESAI Energy forecasts that US shale oil production will reach 5.6 million b/d by Dec. 31, more than 1 million b/d higher than at the end of 2016. But the pace of growth is expected to slow in 2018 as current oil prices below $50/bbl are likely to hinder the momentum of rig additions.
US shale and tight oil producers have become more capable of operating profitably with lower oil prices than a year ago, but most require an oil price in the upper $40s/bbl to break even, ESAI said.
ESAI believes the most active basins will see cost inflation of roughly 15-20% in 2017. Analysts expect that productivity gains of 2015-16 are starting to show signs of leveling off.
Elisabeth Murphy of ESAI said, “Although the pace of growth is expected to slow next year, US shale production is forecast to be about 500,000 b/d higher in 2018 than 2017, still very impressive growth.”
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