石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据道琼斯5月17日消息，杰富瑞公司分析师导致Jason Gammel表示，预计中的欧佩克延长减产协议将推动油价在今年底前反弹至60美元/桶，但是明年的风险仍然存在。他表示，当前石油市场已经处于供应不足的局面，而且整个2017年都将存在这种情况。然而，美国钻井平台数量和美国原油产量的复苏已经快于预期。Gammel表示，那将导致石油市场在明年从供应不足转变成为供应平衡，因为欧佩克减产协议到期和美国产量的增加。因此杰富瑞公司将今年下半年布伦原油的预测值从61美元/桶下调至59美元/桶，2018年的预测油价从72美元/桶下调至64美元/桶，将2019年和2020年的油价预测从85美元/桶分别下调至67美元/桶和70美元/桶。 庞晓华 摘译自 道琼斯 原文如下： Oil Market to Move From Undersupply to Balance in 2018 The expected extension of the OPEC deal will push oil prices towards $60 a barrel by the end of the year but risks remain for next year, says Jason Gammel, analyst at Jefferies. He says the oil market is currently undersupplied and will remain so through 2017. However, the recovery in both the U.S. rig count and U.S. crude oil production has been quicker and more pronounced than expected. That will lead the market from undersupply to balance in 2018 as OPEC cuts expire and U.S. production grows, Mr. Gammel says. Jefferies is therefore reducing its Brent price estimate to $59/bbl from $61/bbl in 2H17; to $64/bbl from $72/bbl in 2018; and to $67/bbl and $70/bbl in 2019 and 2020 respectively from $85/bbl.
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